Quotes & Notes


By: Adrian Hornsby, Vicky Wang

Between Hope and Hazard - An overview of predictions and speculations from 2005 about China 2020

1.Cars 2.Population 3.Traffic 4.Tourism 5.Energy 6.Urban plan 7.Economy 8.Health 9.Environment 10.Fishing 11.Education 12.Aviation 13.Society 14.Institution 15.mega-project 16.Labor 17.Water 18.Agriculture 19.Shanghai 20.Industrial 21.Living Standard 22.Heilongjiang 23.Hangzhou 24.others

1. Cars

  • A number of transportation analysts project that China's automobile market will be the largest in the world by 2020, when it may eclipse the United States as the largest purchaser of cars. "If China's booming automobile market demands smaller and more efficient vehicles than those being produced in the United States, car makers will have no choice but to respond," said WRI Senior Economist Duncan Austin. "China's decision will have a spillover effect, influencing what types of cars are sold in other countries." by Curtis Runyan

http://newsroom.wri.org/wrifeatures_text.cfm?ContentID=2433&NewsletterID=59

  • Auto demand is estimated to increase to between 8 and 10 million units by 2010 and 14 to 18 million units by 2020, he added. By Chen Hong (China Daily)Updated: 2004-06-08 10:14,

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-06/08/content_337544.htm

  • China's demand for automobiles in 2020 is expected to reach 20.74 million units, including 20.43 million sedans, and the total number of cars in China by then will top 156 million, reported Tuesday's (Jan 20th) China Automobile News. Latest Updated by 2004-01-25 09:59:04

http://www.newsgd.com/business/investment/200401250006.htm

  • Green Car Congress found an article in China Daily reporting predictions by Chinese officials that they expect to have 140 million cars on the road by 2020, a number larger than the present American car fleet. A shift to alternative energy cars will happen later, potentially putting China behind more forward-looking markets. This is a world of fast vehicle-ownership growth now, big problems by 2020. Posted September 4, 2004 03:22 PM

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001170.html

  • Kebin Hea, Hong Huob, Qiang Zhang,The urbanization of China accelerated with the urbanization level increasing from 18% in 1978 to 31% in 1999, and is estimated to be 48-50% in 2020,In 2020, the vehicle population in Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai will be 5.34, 3.06, 3.03, and 1.73 respectively. In Beijing and Shanghai, the number of car will be 71% and 69% respectively in 2020,increasing from 44% and 30% in 2020.The fuel economy of cars and small busses in 2020 will be 70% and 60% improved from current level respectively.

http://www.kas.de/upload/dokumente/megacities/urban_transport_system_asian_megacities-text.pdf

  • China only has eight cars on the road for every thousand residents. According to The Ecologist, by 2020, China will be guzzling an additional 8m barrels of crude a day.

http://www.moneyweek.com/article/813/investing/money-morning-830am/mm1403.html

2. Population

  • Beijing's goal: 18 million people by 2020, China Daily,UPDATED: 13:23, November 09, 2004,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/09/eng20041109_163279.html

  • China expects 800 million urban residents by 2020, and is rapidly building more cities; 400 are planned by 2020. Sichuan, China's most populous province with more than 100 million people, is developing nine new cities by 2010 - each for more than one million people.

http://migration.ucdavis.edu/mn/more.php?id=2364_0_3_0

  • Guangdong precinct). By the year 2020 the population is anticipated to increase by 2 to 2.8 million, thus reaching 10 million. The vast region's water supply, sewer pipe, road system, monorail system, bridges, and other infrastructure will be constructed in 5-year phases until the year 2020

http://www.kisho.co.jp/WorksAndProjects/Works/guangzhou/

  • By the year 2020, some 89 percent of Beijing residents will live in the suburbs of the Chinese capital, according to experts from a population forum convened in Beijing recently. By 2020, the total population of Beijing will rise to 17.64 million. The urban population will drop to 1.93 million - just 10.94 percent of the total population - while the population in the near suburbs will increase to 10.33 million, about 58.56 percent of the total. Recent urban planning has brought a great impact on the population change.

http://www.common-talk.com/041117/thisweek.html

  • China has an ambitious plan to reach zero population growth by 2020 to level at 1.5 billion people.

http://www.frontlineonnet.com/fl1715/17150480.htm

  • by Laura B. Shrestha, China alone has 87 million persons (6.8 percent of its population) age sixty-five and older; this will increase to 167 million (11.5 percent) by 2020.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/reprint/19/3/204.pdf

  • Co-founder Saskia Vendel agrees: "Right now, 38 per cent of China's 1.3 billion populace (or about 494 million people) live in the cities. But this number is likely to at least double, and could triple, by the year 2020."

http://www.china.org.cn/english/culture/133495.htm

  • The recent Party congress has set the goal to quadruple the country's per capita GDP of 2000 by the year 2020, meaning the per capita GDP will exceed US$3,000. The ratio of urban residents to China's population is very likely to reach 55 percent by 2020. Hopefully, the number can reach about 35 percent by 2020 if the number of middle-class people increases by 1 percent each year. (China Daily December 3, 2002),

http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/50224.htm

  • By 2020, China will have 200 million aged people, 40 million over 85, more than the population of most nations,

http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/95/11/2459

  • China will have more than 23 million men unable to find wives by 2020 because so many more boys are being born than girls, according to a study.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/07/22/wchina22.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/07/22/ixworld.html

  • With an additional workforce of 47 million likely by 2020, Indian economy by then may surge ahead of China whose 'working' populace is estimated to fall by a massive 10 million workers in the next 15 years, experts at a seminar said in New DelhiApril 09, 2004 18:33 IST,

http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2004/apr/09china.htm

  • By 2020 it is estimated that we will have a population of 240 million elderly (60+) people – a growth of 90% and the highest in the world.

http://www.orbis.org.hk/bins/content_page.asp?cid=589-594-679-840&lang=12

  • By 2020, China will need (depending on diet) between 500 and 600 million tons of grain p.a. for its projected population of 1.5 billion. Thus, on the basis of the AEZ model estimates, China will have problems in feeding its population if it relies on rain-fed cultivation alone. 12249/ ADMINISTERING WATER IN INDIA IN 2050 AD

http://www.oecd.org/document/10/0,2340,en_2649_34213_1961610_1_1_1_1,00.html

  • Woman outlives man. Above the 65 years of age the number of older women grow faster than older men in 2020. Population density in China by 2020 is 149 people per sq km opens the possibility to enrich natural resources and use labour force to add its value.

http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_05_05_papers/demographics.doc

  • The ratio of urban residents to China's population is very likely to reach 55 percent by 2020. Hopefully, the number can reach about 35 percent by 2020 if the number of middle-class people increases by 1 percent each year. (China Daily December 3, 2002),

http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/50224.htm

  • As for employment, China's working-age population will peak at 955 million in 2020 (732 million in 1995). The working age population will decline after 2020, to about 800 million towards the end of the century. International Futures Programme, Published: September 1999By Michel Andrieu

http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/40/China,_a_demographic_time_bomb.html

  • the Heilongjiang population will go through three stages: low growth, zero growth and negative growth before the 2050s. It is estimated that the Heilongjiang population will grow negatively, after 2020.

http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/population/database/chinadata/heilongjiang.htm

  • The one-child policy has created a shortage of female babies, and the government has admitted that by 2020 China might have as many as 40 million single men, which could pose a threat to social stability. Published in The Guardian: 11 September 2004,

http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_guardian_11sep04.html

  • By the year 2020, China will have about 30 million unmarried males aged 15-34. Currently, there are 117 boys born for every 100 girls, a result of the traditional preference for boys and the one-child policy.

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/newsletter/0,1012,sid%253D3636%2526cid%253D63272,00.html

  • In 2000, China’s life expectancy was 71.4 years, compared with 59 years for low-income countries, 69 years for medium-income nations and 78 years for high-income powers. The figure in China is expected to reach 75 by 2020. Li Shantong

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • It is estimated that there will be 170 million retirees by 2020,

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/printable/china_info_print.html-18k

  • Projecting these estimates to the future, the GBD study estimates that there will be 534,000 suicide deaths in China in 2020

http://scholar.google.com/url?sa=U&q=http://www.kluweronline.com/article.asp%3FPIPS%3D204513%26PDF%3D1

  • Lin F, Liu J. It is anticipated that the total working age population would reach 774.23 million by the year 2000 (410.97 million males aged 16-59 years and 363.55 million females aged 16-54 years) and exceed 893 million by 2020 (483.55 million males and 409.50 million females).

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12291336&dopt=Citation

  • by Laura B. Shrestha, China alone has 87 million persons (6.8 percent of its population) age sixty-five and older; this will increase to 167 million (11.5 percent) by 2020.

http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/reprint/19/3/204.pdf


3. Traffic

  • It proposed that by the year 2020, investment for railway construction will amount to 357 billion yuan (43 billion US dollars) and a big chunk of communications expenditure will be appropriated to improve and upgrade airport facilities in the country's central and western region. Wednesday, December 22, 1999, updated at 09:21(GMT+8)

http://english.people.com.cn/english/199912/22/eng19991222X105.html

  • By 2020, drivers should be able to complete a round trip of 400 to 500 kilometers and single trip of 800 to 1000 kilometers in one day, China also aims to enhance its port handling capacity to 6.4 billion tons and container capacity to 200 million. According to the plan, 90 percent of the work in China's ports will be done by machines in 2020. China will further develop its marine transportation, aiming to rank in the first five of the sector worldwide in 2020, the plan says. Xinhua Online, 10 Mar 2005,

http://my.tdctrade.com/airnewse/index.asp?id=5388

  • By 2020, the urban vehicle population is expected to be 13 to 22 times greater than it is today.

http://www.asiairnet.org/publications/3-China.pdf

  • By 2020, Guangzhou will complete 450 kilometers metro lines,

http://www.chinawenni.com/traffic/ENrailwayinfo.htm

  • By year 2020, the total length of roads in China is expected to be between 2.6 and 3.0 million kilometers, a sharp increase from 1.8 million km in 2004 while its highways are projected to increase from 30,000 km in 2004 to 70,000 km in 2020. by Y.BHG. DATO’ IR. CHONG KET PEN

http://www.protasco.com.my/speech/PBCHINAMD.doc

  • By 2020, the Metro is expected to carry 13.10 million persons per day, and by 2035 the Metro is expected to carry 14.10 million persons per day in Chengdu

http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/inimr-ri.nsf/en/gr116525e.html .

  • China's total road network is the world's third-longest: 1.8m km, with 44% of it built in the past 15 years. Nor will it stop there. By 2020, China plans to double again the length of its motorways. Jun 2nd 2005 | BEIJING AND SHANGHAI From The Economist print edition
  • Road traffic fatalities in China are predicted to increase to almost half a million per year by 2020 unless urgent action is taken. By Zhang Feng (Chinadaily) Updated: 2004-10-12 00:32

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-10/12/content_381445.htm

  • according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) the number of hubs is due to grow by another 55 over the next 15 years to hit 185 by 2020. Chinese passenger numbers could hit 950 million by 2020. The CAAC expects that on average three airports will be built each year through to 2020 and Zhang predicts that by then the country will need an extra 10 million m2 (107 million ft2) of terminal space Airline Business,01/06/05

http://www.flightinternational.com/Articles/2005/06/01/Navigation/187/198189/China%E2%80%99s+crossroads.html

  • By 2020 the traffic structure will tend to be rational with traffic congestion relieved. The traffic development will be in a sound cycle. By People's Daily Online,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/26/eng20041126_165280.html

  • Road traffic fatalities in China are forecast by WHO to increase to almost half a million deaths per year by 2020 unless immediate action is taken. By Edward Lanfranco UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041011-072001-9388r.htm

  • "By 2020, Chinese airlines will have over 2,200 planes, and China will become the second largest civil-aviation market in the world, next only to the United States," said Hao Fude, president of Boeing China Inc. From 2001 to 2020, China's demand for civil aircraft will amount to 1,764 planes, with a total value of US$144 billion, the report said. By 2020, the scale of the Chinese fleet will be quadrupled and the number of passenger planes will be more than 2,209, accounting for 7 percent of the world’s fleet. The report also noted that 78 percent of the aircraft flying in the domestic market in 2020 will be feeder-line and single-aisle planes, 19 percent will be medium-size double-aisle planes, while Boeing 747s and even larger planes will account for only 3 percent of the total. By 2020, due to the rapid expansion of China’s domestic market, the number of flights per week will top 64,000, including those to and from Hong Kong and Macau。

http://www.dragonventure.com/En/1001/newsletter_5.shtml October 2001

  • By 2020, Guangzhou will complete 450 kilometers metro lines.

http://www.chinawenni.com/traffic/ENrailwayinfo.htm

  • Feng Xingfu, Vice General Manager, Beijing Public Transport Holdings, Ltd by 2020 the total number of travels in Beijing will reach 52 million to 55 million per day. The ratio of travels transported by public transport will increase from 27% in 2000 to more than 50%.

http://www.iru.org/Events/BusCoachForum2005/Speeches.htm

  • Airport to meet its ultimate design capacity of 87 million passengers and 9 million tons of cargo annually by 2020. April 2004,

http://www.buyusa.gov/hongkong/en/hkaviation.html

  • These stations will be built in Tibet and the western areas of Sichuan and Yunnan provinces by 2020, notes a senior official with the State

Development Planning Commission (SDPC).

http://www.most.gov.cn/English/newletter/154.htm

  • Shanghai would pass the threshold of two million cars in 2020. July 12, 2005 New York Times A City's Traffic Plans Are Snarled by China's Car Culture By HOWARD W. FRENCH,

http://www.angkor.com/2bangkok/2bangkok/forum/archive/index.php/t-995.html

  • The Development Research Center of the State Council (the country's cabinet) was quoted on Jan. 20 in the China Automobile News a saying by 2020 there will be more than 156 million cars on the road nationwide. By Ed Lanfranco, UPI Business Correspondent, Published 1/22/2004 5:41 PM,

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040122-051043-4197r

  • The government in Beijing agrees: it estimates that by 2020, there will be 140 million vehicles on China's roads. Chinese demand has accounted for 40% of the world's total oil growth since 2000, and by 2020 China is expected to need eight million more barrels of oil per day. Third World Network Features, in association with The Ecologist 07 Jun 2005 by Yves Engler & Bianca Mugyenyi,

http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2484

  • There’s gridlock coming in the next fifteen years: according to the recently released Beijing Traffic Development Outline, by 2020 there will be 5 million private cars on the roads in Beijing, or about 1 for every 1.2 householders. By Joel Martinsen June 12,05 02:27pm,

http://www.danwei.org/archives/001762.html

  • CHINA’S central government has approved plans to build a 600 kilometre, high-speed rail network by 2020 that would connect nine major Pearl River Delta cities, reducing travel time between any two including Hong Kong and Macau to an hour. CILT News March 2004 ,

http://www.cilt-international.com/news-arc.asp?m=3&y=2004

  • By 2020, the metro length in aggregate would reach around 500 kilometers in Guangzhou and 250 kilometers in Shenzhen respectively, representing an investment market of $38 billion and an export market of $4 billion.

http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/inimr-ri.nsf/en/gr116277e.html

  • SHANGHAI, CHINA: An 815 kilometer rail network will be built by 2020 to connect cities in the Yangtze River Delta area, it was revealed at "the Third China Urban Rail Transport International Summit" held in Shanghai on April 19. RAIL SYSTEM TO LINK DELTA, Jane Chen, Shanghai Daily news (20 April 2005)

http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/article-59843.html

  • At least 100 billion yuan ($12 billion) will be needed annually to expand the rail network from its current 75,000km to the planned 100,000km by 2020.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GF18Ad03.html By Michael Mackey

  • By the end of 2020, Guangdong, which borders the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions, will own a total length of 4,500 kilometres of railway tracks, making it a key province in railway transportation and fortifying its status as a logistic centre in South China. by 2020, Guangdong will have a total of 12 railway lines to connect the province with other mainland areas, added Chen, (China Daily September 21, 2004)

http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/107708.htm

  • China plans to invest 2 trillion yuan (US$242 billion) by 2020 to beef up the rail system, extending the network to 100,000km from 73,000km and partially separating passenger and freight transport. REUTERS , ZHENGZHOU, CHINA

Tuesday, Jun 15, 2004,Page 12

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2004/06/15/2003175169

  • Construction projects of this railway line, which runs through eastern, central and western China, have been gradually activated. Upon completion in 2020, it will reduce the Chengdu-Shanghai traveling time to 10 hours. (People's Daily Online)

Updated: 2004-11-26 14:56

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-11/26/content_395183.htm

  • China will purchase more than 1,900 aircraft by 2020, the government announced. The head of General Administration of Civil Aviation of China Yang Yuanyuan also said China is targeted to become third in the world by 2020 in terms of aviation passenger and cargo turnover. It currently ranks sixth in the world. He also said the country will support at least three airlines which will rank among the world's top 20 in terms of aviation industry turnover by 2020.

http://www.sinomedia.net/eurobiz/v200311/brief0311.html

  • Sichuan's highways would cover 4,000 km by 2020 and car journeys from Chengdu to neighboring provinces like Yunnan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Gansu and Chongqing Municipality would then takeno more than half a day, Xinhua News Agency, Jan 2, 2003

http://www.chinaembassy.org.np/economy_trade/text/highway_construction.htm

  • by 2020, Beijing plans to have 15 operational metro rail lines By Greg Levin

http://www.sinomedia.net/eurobiz/v200303/urban0303.html

  • Today, the hottest phrase in the Chinese railways is definitely “leap-forward development”, which shows China’s ambitious plan to rapidly develop its railways by 2020. The plan outlines the development as follows:
    1. Passenger-dedicated Network in 2020
      • Four vertical lines(Beijing-Shenyang-Harbin;Beijing-Shanghai;Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen;Shanghai-Ningbo-Shenzhen)
      • Four horizontal lines (Qingdao-Shijiazhuang-Taiyuan; Xuzhou-Zhengzhou-Lanzhou; Nanjing-Wuhan-Chongqing-Chengdu;Hangzhou-Nanchang-Changsha)
      • Three inter-city express passenger transportation systems (Bohai Rim; Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta)
      • Passenger-dedicated line up to 12,000 km
      • Passenger train speed up to 200 km/h and above
    2. Container Transportation Corridors in 2020
      • Completion of 18 intermodal terminals and 40 container-handling stations
      • Container-intensive lines upgraded
      • Operation of double-stack container trains on 16,000 km of lines
    3. Railway Network Plan in 2020
      • Railway route length increasing from 73,000 km in 2003 to 100,000 km in 2020
      • Separation of passenger and freight traffic on busy trunk lines
      • 50% coverage for double-track and electrification
      • Acceleration of railway construction in the western region
      • Further improvement on railway network in central and eastern regions
      • Rapid passenger-dedicated railway network & heavy-duty freight transport corridors covering China’s major cities

http://www.modernrailways.com.cn/Market.htm


  • According to the Railway Network Planning of Middle and Long Term passed at the beginning of 2004 by Chinese government, in 2020, China will construct special passenger lines of “four vertical and four horizontal lines” with a full length over 12 thousand kilometers.

http://www1.cei.gov.cn/ce/sample/ceibiz_contents/CEIBIZ_06292005contents.pdf

  • Between 2010 and 2020, China's road network will continue to expand in line with growth of demand, with the network reaching 2.5 million kilometers, including 70,000 kilometers of highways. From 2020 to the middle of the 21st century, China will improve the quality of its road transportation to that of an average developed country, meeting the needs of public transportation not only in terms of quantity, but also quality. By 2050, the length of the road network will top four million kilometers, with highways exceeding 75,000 kilometers. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, October 22, 2002,

http://english.people.com.cn/200210/22/eng20021022_105463.shtml

  • A number of transportation analysts project that China's automobile market will be the largest in the world by 2020, when it may eclipse the United States as the largest purchaser of cars. "If China's booming automobile market demands smaller and more efficient vehicles than those being produced in the United States, car makers will have no choice but to respond," said WRI Senior Economist Duncan Austin. "China's decision will have a spillover effect, influencing what types of cars are sold in other countries." by Curtis Runyan

http://newsroom.wri.org/wrifeatures_text.cfm?ContentID=2433&NewsletterID=59

  • Green Car Congress found an article in China Daily reporting predictions by Chinese officials that they expect to have 140 million cars on the road by 2020, a number larger than the present American car fleet. A shift to alternative energy cars will happen later, potentially putting China behind more forward-looking markets. This is a world of fast vehicle-ownership growth now, big problems by 2020. Posted by Jamais Cascio at September 4, 2004 03:22 PM

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001170.html

  • China's total road network is the world's third-longest: 1.8m km, with 44% of it built in the past 15 years. Nor will it stop there. By 2020, China plans to double again the length of its motorways. Jun 2nd 2005 | BEIJING AND SHANGHAI

From The Economist print edition

  • according to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) the number of hubs is due to grow by another 55 over the next 15 years to hit 185 by 2020. Chinese passenger numbers could hit 950 million by 2020. The CAAC expects that on average three airports will be built each year through to 2020 and Zhang predicts that by then the country will need an extra 10 million m2 (107 million ft2) of terminal space Airline Business,01/06/05

http://www.flightinternational.com/Articles/2005/06/01/Navigation/187/198189/China%E2%80%99s+crossroads.html

  • Feng Xingfu, Vice General Manager, Beijing Public Transport Holdings, Ltd by 2020 the total number of travels in Beijing will reach 52 million to 55 million per day. The ratio of travels transported by public transport will increase from 27% in 2000 to more than 50%.

http://www.iru.org/Events/BusCoachForum2005/Speeches.htm

  • Airport to meet its ultimate design capacity of 87 million passengers and 9 million tons of cargo annually by 2020. April 2004,

http://www.buyusa.gov/hongkong/en/hkaviation.html

  • There’s gridlock coming in the next fifteen years: according to the recently released Beijing Traffic Development Outline, by 2020 there will be 5 million private cars on the roads in Beijing, or about 1 for every 1.2 householders. By Joel Martinsen June 12,05 02:27pm,

http://www.danwei.org/archives/001762.html

  • By the end of 2020, Guangdong, which borders the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions, will own a total length of 4,500 kilometres of railway tracks, making it a key province in railway transportation and fortifying its status as a logistic centre in South China. by 2020, Guangdong will have a total of 12 railway lines to connect the province with other mainland areas, added Chen, (China Daily September 21, 2004)

http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/107708.htm

  • Today, the hottest phrase in the Chinese railways is definitely “leap-forward development”, which shows China’s ambitious plan to rapidly develop its railways by 2020. The plan outlines the development as follows
    1. Passenger-dedicated Network in 2020
      • Four vertical lines (Beijing-Shenyang-Harbin; Beijing-Shanghai; Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen; Shanghai-Ningbo-Shenzhen)
      • Four horizontal lines (Qingdao-Shijiazhuang-Taiyuan; Xuzhou-Zhengzhou-Lanzhou; Nanjing-Wuhan-Chongqing-Chengdu; Hangzhou-Nanchang-Changsha)
      • Three inter-city express passenger transportation systems (Bohai Rim; Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta)
      • Passenger-dedicated line up to 12,000 km
      • Passenger train speed up to 200 km/h and above
    2. Container Transportation Corridors in 2020
      • Completion of 18 intermodal terminals and 40 container-handling stations
      • Container-intensive lines upgraded
      • Operation of double-stack container trains on 16,000 km of lines
    3. Railway Network Plan in 2020
      • Railway route length increasing from 73,000 km in 2003 to 100,000 km in 2020
      • Separation of passenger and freight traffic on busy trunk lines
      • 50% coverage for double-track and electrification
      • Acceleration of railway construction in the western region
      • Further improvement on railway network in central and eastern regions
      • Rapid passenger-dedicated railway network & heavy-duty freight transport corridors covering China’s major cities

http://www.modernrailways.com.cn/Market.htm

  • By 2020, Chinese airlines will have over 2,200 planes, and China will become the second largest civil-aviation market in the world, next only to the United States," said Hao Fude, president of Boeing China Inc. From 2001 to 2020, China's demand for civil aircraft will amount to 1,764 planes, with a total value of US$144 billion, the report said. By 2020, the scale of the Chinese fleet will be quadrupled and the number of passenger planes will be more than 2,209, accounting for 7 percent of the world’s fleet. The report also noted that 78 percent of the aircraft flying in the domestic market in 2020 will be feeder-line and single-aisle planes, 19 percent will be medium-size double-aisle planes, while Boeing 747s and even larger planes will account for only 3 percent of the total. By 2020, due to the rapid expansion of China’s domestic market, the number of flights per week will top 64,000, including those to and from Hong Kong and Macau.

http://www.dragonventure.com/En/1001/newsletter_5.shtml October 2001

  • By 2020, the metro length in aggregate would reach around 500 kilometers in Guangzhou and 250 kilometers in Shenzhen respectively, representing an investment market of $38 billion and an export market of $4 billion.

http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/internet/inimr-ri.nsf/en/gr116277e.html

  • China plans to invest 2 trillion yuan (US$242 billion) by 2020 to beef up the rail system, extending the network to 100,000km from 73,000km and partially separating passenger and freight transport. REUTERS , ZHENGZHOU, CHINA

Tuesday, Jun 15, 2004,Page 12

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2004/06/15/2003175169

  • Road traffic fatalities in China are forecast by WHO to increase to almost half a million deaths per year by 2020 unless immediate action is taken. By Edward Lanfranco UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041011-072001-9388r.htm

  • By 2020 the traffic structure will tend to be rational with traffic congestion relieved. The traffic development will be in a sound cycle. By People's Daily Online,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/26/eng20041126_165280.html

  • CHINA’S central government has approved plans to build a 600 kilometre, high-speed rail network by 2020 that would connect nine major Pearl River Delta cities, reducing travel time between any two including Hong Kong and Macau to an hour.

March 2004 ,

http://www.cilt-international.com/news-arc.asp?m=3&y=2004

  • SHANGHAI, CHINA: An 815 kilometer rail network will be built by 2020 to connect cities in the Yangtze River Delta area, it was revealed at "the Third China Urban Rail Transport International Summit" held in Shanghai on April 19. RAIL SYSTEM TO LINK DELTA, Jane Chen, Shanghai Daily news (20 April 2005)

http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/article-59843.html

4. Tourism

  • World Travel Organization predicts that by year 2020, China will become the number one travel destination in the world.

http://www.china-inc.com/education/geography/

  • Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, October 06, 2002, By 2020, China is set to become the world's largest tourism destination and the fourth major source of tourists, the World Tourism Organization predicts.

http://english.people.com.cn/200210/06/eng20021006_104531.shtml

  • The Chinese are keen to spend on travel. There will be 100 million Chinese tourists by 2020, up from 20.2 million in 2003. China has designated 27 European countries as “approved destinations” beginning from early September 2004. By the year 2020, China will have about 30 million unmarried males aged 15-34. Currently, there are 117 boys born for every 100 girls, a result of the traditional preference for boys and the one-child policy. Beijing is considering building two new airports to cope with growing passenger demand. Its recently expanded Capital International Airport can handle 60 million passengers annually, but passenger flow to the capital is expected to reach 120-150 million by 2020. Express China News, October 2004

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/newsletter/0,1012,sid%253D3636%2526cid%253D63272,00.html

  • According to a recent National Geographic article, by the year 2020 China was to be the most visited country in the world, Aug, 01/2003,

http://adventuretravel.about.com/b/a/2003_08.htm

  • According to the forecast by WTO, China will be the top international destination country in the world with about 137 million international arrivals by the year 2020, and with over 1 million outbound visitors a year, By 2020, the total tourism output will be RMB 2500 to 3600 bn yuan, accounting for 7.9 to 11.4 percent of China’s GDP. The plan has been approved, and detailed implementation measures have been developed by the CNTA.

https://haworthpressinc.com/store/SampleText/4682.pdf

  • The World Tourism Association believes 100 million Chinese will travel abroad each year by 2020. China may be the dominant tourist country before then. Tourism’s future What China taught me about Maine BY LANCE TAPLEY,

http://www.portlandphoenix.com/features/top/ts_multi/documents/04272170.asp

  • By 2020, Tibet will attract 1.12 million inbound travelers and 9.05 million domestic travelers. Tourism revenue will reach 22.8 billion yuan (US$2.8 billion), accounting for 18 percent of local GDP. Xinhua News Agency March 3, 2005,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/travel/121604.htm

5. Energy

  • Energy Industry Association suggests that by 2020 China could achieve a wind energy capacity of 170,000MW with the right policy measures. Wind Force 12, May 2004.

http://www.greenpeace.org/china/en/press/releases/greenpeace-backs-chinese-envir

  • the energy-hungry nation may face a shortage of 250 million tonnes of crude oil by 2020 as local production may meet only 44 percent of demand, China Oil News said, citing a Xinhua news agency report. ethylene demand in China may double to 23 million tonnes by 2020. China's natural gas output is expected to rise to 120 billion cubic meters by 2020, from 34 billion cubic meters, the report said. Gas demand may rise to 200 billion cubic meters from 30 billion cubic meters BLOOMBERG

Monday, Jul 26, 2004,Page 10

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2004/07/26/2003180558

  • By 2020, China will transform all existing buildings into energy-saving ones. New buildings must embrace technology that could save 65 percent more energy per unit. www.chinaview.cn 2005-03-11 20:43:28

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-03/11/content_2684924.htm

  • China’s annual natural gas consumption will reach 160-210 billion cubic meters by 2020; today China has 1,300-1,600 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves.

http://www.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/conference/2004/pdfs/gettman_uscs.pdf

  • China is working to quadruple its 2000 GDP (gross domestic product) while only doubling its energy consumption by 2020, said Vice Premier Zeng Peiyan Tuesday at the ongoing Fortune Global Forum in Beijing. Latest Updated by 2005-05-18 09:30:23, China View website,

http://www.newsgd.com/news/China1/200505180020.htm

  • By 2020, China will be burning its way through over 100m tonnes of coal each year, fuelling global warming. Last year its total coal production reached 114m tonnes, having doubled since 1981. The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future, Elizabeth Economy, Cornell University Press, 25 July 2004, By Kenny Kemp,

http://www.sundayherald.com/43523

  • Nuclear power should make up four percent of the nation's total generating capacity by 2020, according to plans made by National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)

http://www.edu.cn/20050119/3127125.shtml 2005-01-19

  • Coal production in 2020 will likely be around 1,600 million tons of raw coal,

http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309068878/html/23.html

  • President Hu Jintao's government has mapped out a plan that calls for hiking reliance on natural gas from 3% to 10% by 2020. By 2020, vehicles on its roads are expected to swell from 24 million now to 100 million. By then, transportation will account for 60% of China's energy use, up from 33% now. By Brian Bremner in Hong Kong, with John Carey in Washington, APRIL 11, 2005

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_15/b3928070.htm?chan=gb

  • In the Natural Resources Defense Council's Winter 1998 Amicus Journal, staff members Barbara Finamore and Robert Watson write, "Between now and 2020, [China] will account for 50 percent of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions." CO2 is one of the major greenhouse gases. Corliss Karasov,

http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/docs/2000/108-10/focus.html

  • By 2020, oil demand will reach 450 million tonnes, with the dependence on imports going up 65 per cent, from the current 30 per cent. 《The Business Times》, (2003-12-30),

http://ir.zaobao.com/caosco/news/cao301203_e.html

  • He estimated that electricity generated by natural gas would increase a hundred fold to 285 billion kwh in 2020 from 2.8 billion kwh in 2000. www.chinanews.cn 2005-02-03 13:16:30

http://www.chinanews.cn/news/2004/2005-02-03/1528.shtml

  • By 2020, the installed capacity of wind power is planned to reach 20GW and several GW level wind power bases will be set up in regions with rich wind resources., China Electric Power News, 05/24/ 2005 - Translated by Michael Mei

http://www.buyusa.gov/china/en/ccb050624.html

  • Coal consumption in 1997 was 1,030 million short tons and in 2020 will reach 1,275 million short tons an annual growth of about 1 percent. Over 90 percent of coal used in 2020 will be in electricity generation.

http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309068878/html/22.html

  • China will devote great efforts to developing an ultrahigh-voltage power grid and will target completion of the project by 2020, according to the State Power Grid Corporation, the largest power grid owner and operator in China. China Electric Power News, 07/30/2005, - Translated by Baochun Mei

http://www.buyusa.gov/china/en/ccb050805.html

  • Jeffrey Logan, Senior Research Scientist Over the past five years, China has announced a major shift in natural gas policy. Largely ignored in the past, the central government wants gas to account for at least 10 percent of total energy demand in 2020, mainly for environmental reasons. China’s economy is expected to continue expanding robustly through 2020, with average GDP growth of 6 to 7 percent. Under a moderately progressive scenario, China’s overall energy use is expected to increase by just over 80 percent by 2020.

http://www.pnl.gov/aisu/pubs/polldown.pdf

  • Li Zheng, Ni Weidou, Zheng Hongtao, and Ma Linwei, It is estimated that, by 2020, China can produceup to 2.0 billion tonnes (Gt) of coal per year.

http://www.ieiglobal.org/ESDVol7No4/polygeneration.pdf

  • By 2020, its economic strength will be doubled once again with oil and gas equivalents, crude runs, chemicals production, and international trade volume increase remarkably, making the overseas oil and gas production comparative to that of domestic and its overall strength listed in line with the world top petroleum companies. (November 5, 2004, Shanghai ) Mr. Zhou Jiping, Vice President, CNPC,

http://161.207.1.180/english/xwygg/speeches/200506100004.htm

  • As yet, oil, natural gas and renewables such as wind barely feature in the electricity mix. But by 2020, according to official projections, gas-fired stations could be meeting 15% of China's electricity needs, while nuclear power may have expanded to around 5%. And thanks to a law passed in February this year designed to promote renewable energy, wind and other renewables could account for 10%.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v435/n7046/full/4351152a.html Peter Aldhous

  • In short, if current trends hold, by 2020 China is likely to emerge as a formidable multidimensional regional power as it continues to trade quantity for quality, increase defense spending, pursue innovation, and mature its industrial base. Such a capability is likely to put China in a much stronger position to pursue its interests and perhaps to threaten East Asia. But it is unlikely to be able to catch up with the United States across the board and on a global basis before 2050.

http://www.rand.org/publications/IP/IP187/IP187.html

  • The Shanghai Port Administration has predicted that Shanghai port, currently ranked third in the world in terms of cargo volume handled after Hong Kong and Singapore, will become the world's largest handler by 2020. By 2020 China aims to have 35 percent of household energy consumption sourced from natural gas.

http://www.sinomedia.net/eurobiz/v200411/brief0411.html

  • Last November, the all-powerful State Council issued the broad outlines of a new energy policy through 2020 that called for a "leapfrog strategy in the energy field." The aims include securing more supplies abroad, shifting away from China's fixation with coal, dramatically increasing the use of natural gas, building more hydro generators on the mainland's vast river networks, upgrading the electricity grid, and pushing for more solar and wind power resources. The plan even calls for a major ramp-up in nuclear energy. Beijing wants to have nearly 40 reactors by 2020, up from nine today. ASIAN BUSINESS NOVEMBER 15, 2004,

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_46/b3908044.htm

  • By the year 2020, China will need an electricity installed capacity of 1 billion kilowatts from the current 500 million kilowatts, a 100 percent increase, official statistics show. China Daily March 21, 2005,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/123367.htm

  • By 2020, China will not be able to supply itself with oil, iron, steel, aluminum, sulfur, and other minerals.

http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed030403.cfm

  • Chinese officials estimate that by 2020 the country will need an additional installation capacity of 32,000 megawatts from the nuclear industry, or about 32 new reactors. The prevailing power shortages in about two-thirds of China's provinces last year has propelled the government to more than double power generation by the end of 2020. By Zhu Boru (China Business Weekly)Updated: 2004-05-16 13:57

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-05/16/content_331112.htm

  • By 2020, starting from a minuscule base that it has established only recently, China expects to supply 10 percent of its needs from so-called renewable energy sources, including wind, solar energy, small hydroelectric dams and biomass like plant fibers and animal wastes. The outcome has been a real boom among suppliers of wind power equipment. "We're expecting the sector to grow 50 to 75 percent a year between now and 2020," said Jens Olsen, the chief representative of Vestas, a Danish turbine manufacturer that is the leading equipment supplier in China. By Howard W. French The Huitengxile Journal Tuesday 26 July 2005

http://www.truthout.org/issues_05/072605EB.shtml

  • Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Shenzhen Special Economic Zone is expected to reach more than US$20,000 in 2020, competing with Hong Kong, Singapore and other major metropolises in Asia. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, September 23, 2003,

http://english.people.com.cn/200309/23/eng20030923_124761.shtml

  • By John Diamond, USA TODAY ,WASHINGTON — By the year 2020, China and India will be vying with the United States for global economic supremacy, the nation's top intelligence analysts predict, and al-Qaeda will have withered away — only to be replaced by smaller, more splintered but equally deadly groups of terrorists, Posted 1/13/2005 11:39 PM,

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-01-13-long-view-usat_x.htm

  • By 2020, China will have overtaken Japan as the world's second biggest economy. It may even have started to rival the US in terms of the hard power of its military.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,15047,1299094,00.html

  • China has put forward that by 2020 its GDP, calculated at the current exchange rate, will quadruple that of 2000.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • The average annual per capita income is $4,000, three times higher than the rest of China, and the Shanghai economy is expected to grow at more than 7 percent per year through 2020. The World's Shanghai. 2005-06-21 06:41 China Daily 06/21/2005 page2,

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-06/21/content_453123.htm

  • By 2020 China will be on the verge of superseding the US as the world's leading economic power. Time for the US to wake up and smell the soy sauce, reckons Mark Leonard Saturday September 11, 2004 The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,,1299091,00.html

  • Jonathan S. Landay Knight Ridder Newspapers Posted on Thu, Jan. 13, 2005, The world of 2020 is likely to be one in which Asia is the main engine of the global economy, India and China are major powers and al-Qaida-inspired Islamist movements have spread to Muslim communities outside the Middle East, a new U.S. intelligence report said Thursday. By 2020, China's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services, will be greater than that of any Western country except the United States, and India's GDP will have overtaken or will be about to overtake European economies.

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/10639015.htm

  • On current trends, China would become an upper middle- income country by the year 2020, and the third largest economy in the world. By 2020, China will face the challenges of a high income country, but at a time when it will have the resources of only a middle income country. November 15-16, 1996

http://www.ciaonet.org/conf/cfr01/cfr01ai.html

  • By 2020 China will be bigger than Japan and during the 2040s larger than America, and thus the world’s biggest economy. TUESDAY, JUNE 01, 2004,

HTTP://WWW.ECONOMICSUK.COM/BLOG/000131.HTML

  • By the year 2020, China will become a "well-off society" in an all-around way when the country's GDP is quadrupled from that of 2000, and its overall national strength and international competitiveness will increase markedly, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Jiang Zemin told the Party's 16th Congress in Beijing Friday. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, November 08, 2002,

http://english.people.com.cn/200211/08/eng20021108_106504.shtml

  • By 2020, China's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services, will be greater than that of any Western country except the United States, and India's GDP will have overtaken or will be about to overtake European economies. By Jonathan S. Landay Knight Ridder Newspapers,

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/news/special_packages/iraq/intelligence/10639015.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

  • It is expected that the middle income community would amount to 40 percent of the whole society by 2020. People's Daily (2004-03-26)

http://www.chinataiwan.org/web/webportal/W5023243/A5611053.html

  • A $4 trillion economy would give China's 1.3 billion people a per capita income of $3000 by 2020, compared with about $1230 now. Wednesday, May 18, 2005 Posted: 0107 GMT (0907 HKT),

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/05/17/eyeonchina.hujintao.target/

  • If China maintained this year’s 8% growth for the next 20 years, it would reach the Party Congress’ new goal of quadrupling national income by 2020.
    1. By 2010, China would have over 500M middle class consumers - & become world’s largest consumer market.
    2. By 2020, Chinese incomes would be $10,000 per capita. Thus, China would achieve Deng's target of matching South Korean income levels 30 years ahead of schedule.
    3. By 2020, China would have 1.5 B people earning substantial disposable incomes. (with 20% of them owning a private car!) This would make China world’s second largest exporter and importer after USA, with purchasing power larger than all Europe.

http://www.cic.sfu.ca/forum/EarlDrakeJan232003.html

  • Between 1980-2000, China’s urban per-capita disposable income increased by 5.7 percent, and rural per-capita net income grew by 6.4 percent annually. By 2020 when GDP quadruples that of 2000, urban per-capita disposable income would rise by two-fold to 20,000 yuan ($2,415.46) and rural per-capita net income by 3.5-fold to 8,000 yuan ($966.18), calculated based on the prices of 2000. Li Shantong

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • Wu Xiaoping, Vice Chairman of China's insurance regulator predicted in June 2004 that China's insurance premiums would reach RMB 3 trillion (US$363 billion) by 2020.

http://www.euromoneyseminars.com/default.asp?Page=102&eventid=ELE701&eventmenu=true&eventpassed=false=ASHK

  • Industry experts estimate that by 2020 China’s safety and security market will reach USD 30 billion. From September 11, 2001 through 2004, the Chinese government has invested USD 130 million to cope with anti-terrorism security issues, many involving air travel.

http://www.buyusa.gov/china/en/firesecurity.html

  • China’s expenditure on travel is currently growing by 27% per year and tourist departures are expected to grow to 100 million by 2020,Shanghai, 16 March 2005,

http://www.iru.org/Events/BusCoachForum2005/declaration.htm

  • In the next 20 years, China could surpass Japan as the second largest trading nation, and between 2020 and 2030 the People’s Republic could emerge as the world’s biggest economy.

http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb106/hb106-59.pdf

  • By 2020, Tibet will attract 1.12 million inbound travelers and 9.05 million domestic travelers. Tourism revenue will reach 22.8 billion yuan (US$2.8 billion), accounting for 18 percent of local GDP. Xinhua News Agency March 3, 2005,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/travel/121604.htm

  • World Travel Organization predicts that by year 2020, China will become the number one travel destination in the world.

http://www.china-inc.com/education/geography/

  • Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, October 06, 2002, By 2020, China is set to become the world's largest tourism destination and the fourth major source of tourists, the World Tourism Organization predicts.

http://english.people.com.cn/200210/06/eng20021006_104531.shtml

  • IDG will establish a new $150 million fund in China in the first quarter of 2005. IDG plans to invest US$2.5 billion in China by 2020.

http://www.paidcontent.org/pc/arch/cat_china.shtml

  • Kebin Hea, Hong Huob, Qiang Zhang The urbanization of China accelerated with the urbanization level increasing from 18% in 1978 to 31% in 1999, and is estimated to be 48-50% in 2020,In 2020, the vehicle population in Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing and Shanghai will be 5.34, 3.06, 3.03, and 1.73 respectively. In Beijing and Shanghai, the number of car will be 71% and 69% respectively in 2020,increasing from 44% and 30% in 2020.The fuel economy of cars and small bus in 2020 will be 70% and 60% improved from current level respectively.

http://www.kas.de/upload/dokumente/megacities/urban_transport_system_asian_megacities-text.pdf

  • According to the forecast by WTO, China will be the top international destination country in the world with about 137 million international arrivals by the year 2020, and with over 1 million outbound visitors a year, By 2020, the total tourism output will be RMB 2500 to 3600 bn yuan, accounting for 7.9 to 11.4 percent of China’s GDP. The plan has been approved, and detailed implementation measures have been developed by the CNTA.

https://haworthpressinc.com/store/SampleText/4682.pdf

  • Tokyo 13-14 January 2005, In recent years, China has emerged as the foremost proponent of creating the so-called East Asian Economic Community by 2020. the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that China’s gross domestic product may account for one fifth of the world’s total in 2020, surpassing the US (11%) and Japan (5%).

http://www.nira.go.jp/newse/paper/japan-eu/pdf/berkofsky.pdf

  • Scott Rozelle and Jikun Huang, Starting from a 1995 baseline of 85 kilograms, per capita wheat consumption is projected to remain constant over the first fifteen years of the twenty-five-year forecast period. Per capita wheat consumption declines to 82 kilograms in 2020 Total wheat demand continues to increase through 2020 mainly because of population growth. In fact, the most likely scenario is that China’s wheat imports will fall by 2020. China could very well become self-sufficient in wheat within 25 years

http://www2.montana.edu/jantle/trc/pdf/conferences/confproc98/rozelle.pdf

  • Jikun Huang, Cunlai Chen, In order to provide a long term prospects on China’s food security under a free trade regime, we project China’s food supply, demand and trade toward 2020 under a free trade scenario without and with the progressive improvement in agricultural productivity enhancement investment.

http://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/sspn/old%20site/APC/7Jikun.PDF

  • Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish production in 2020. China’s share of world production will continue to expand, while that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%.

http://www.fishforall.org/media/release/fish2020.pdf

  • The research shows that the traditional developing model will threaten the sustainability of eco-environment and economic development, to this challenge, the intensive urbanization policy should be conformed to, so by the end of year 2020, As Chinese government has brought forward two important development goals (one is that the Chinese people on the whole will have enjoyed a well-off standard of living in 2020, and the other is China will realize their aim of modernization in 2050), so Western China should protect eco-environment as well as keep on developing economy

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/bridging/papers/dong.suocheng.pdf

  • Ya-Hwei Yang , To become an economic powerhouse, China resumed membership in the International Monetary Foundation in April 1980, the World Bank in May of the same year and later became a member of the Bank of International Settlement. It then joined the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001. Yi (2000) and other scholars expect that by 2020 China may achieve full integration with the international trade and financial system

http://www.tsc.nccu.edu.tw/2004conference/%B7%A8%B6%AE%B4f.pdf

  • Poultry consumption in developing countries is projected to grow at 3.9% per annum through 2020, followed by beef at 2.9% and pork at 2.4%.

http://www.nutrition.org/cgi/content/full/133/11/3907S

  • Thomas P.M. Barnett, China could be the world’s largest auto market by 2020, increasing the oil needs of its enormous population by 40 percent

http://www.ndu.edu/inss/books/Books_2002/Globalization_and_Maritime_Power_Dec_02/11_ch10.htm

  • by Chi Hung KWAN, Since the initial stage of xiaokang has basically been achieved, Jiang Zemin put forth the target of quadrupling GDP from 2000 levels by 2020 so as to achieve a xiaokang society in an all-round way. China's per capita GDP in 2020 would just reach $3,000 based on 2000 prices and foreign exchange rates, a far cry from the roughly $30,000 level of industrial countries today.

http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/03042401.html

  • Green Car Congress found an article in China Daily reporting predictions by Chinese officials that they expect to have 140 million cars on the road by 2020, a number larger than the present American car fleet.A shift to alternative energy cars will happen later, potentially putting China behind more forward-looking markets. This is a world of fast vehicle-ownership growth now, big problems by 2020. Posted by Jamais Cascio at September 4, 2004 03:22 PM

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001170.html

  • An official surnamed Li of the Shenzhen Water Resources Bureau estimated that by 2020, Shenzhen would need 2.8 billion cubic meters of water, 800 million cubic meters of that still to be sourced. Shenzhen Daily, UPDATED: 11:59, November 17, 2004,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/17/eng20041117_164216.html

  • It is predicted that the annual consumption of natural gas in China will reach 160 to 210 billion cubic meters by 2020. Xinhua News Agency April 26, 2004,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/94033.htm

  • Thus, attribution of GHG abatement is inherently speculative, as it involves assumptions about the mix of household cooking fuels which will prevail in China in 2020.

http://www.ieiglobal.org/ESDVol5No1/liquidcookingfuels.pdf

6. Urban plan

  • People’s Daily, 2005-05-09 00:32:25 XinhuaEnglish, According to the Beijing City Master Plan 2004-2020, Beijing has planned 11 new towns including Tongzhou, Shunyi and Yizhuang etc. These will relieve the population pressure on central areas. Beijing plans to reduce the current population in old city from 1.65 million to 1.1 million by the year 2020.

http://english.sina.com/china/1/2005/0509/30114.html

  • Tuesday, February 06, 2001, updated at 08:53(GMT+8), Beijing to Develop into Global Metropolis by 2020,

http://english.people.com.cn/english/200102/06/eng20010206_61608.html

  • China to build 30-mil-kw nuclear power units by 2020,Latest Updated by 2005-06-08 09:47:32, China View website,

http://www.newsgd.com/news/China1/200506080007.htm

  • Li Shantong, Director of the Development Strategy and Regional Economy Research Department under the State Council Development Research Center, Urban and rural income Between 1980-2000, China’s urban per-capita disposable income increased by 5.7 percent, and rural per-capita net income grew by 6.4 percent annually. By 2020 when GDP quadruples that of 2000, urban per-capita disposable income would rise by two-fold to 20,000 yuan ($2,415.46) and rural per-capita net income by 3.5-fold to 8,000 yuan ($966.18), calculated based on the prices of 2000.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • Before 2020, China will complete a series of big hydropower stations along the Honghe and Lancang rivers, and at the upper reaches of the Yellow and the Yangtze, China's two largest waterways. Thursday, November 23, 2000, updated at 20:51(GMT+8) ,

http://english.people.com.cn/english/200011/23/eng20001123_55984.html

  • At Xiangjiaba, the site of the furthest downstream of the four dams, the height of the dam will be 160 metres: an even larger one upstream at Xiluodu will reach 270m. Work on Xiluodu will begin this year. Both dams are scheduled for completion before 2020. John Gittings in Xiangjiaba, Yunnan Friday May 30, 2003 ,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,966654,00.html

  • According to CNN.com, China has plans to launch a human being to the Moon by the year 2020. In comments broadcast by state television, Luan Enjie, director of the National Aerospace Bureau, said, "By 2020, we will achieve visiting the moon." November 29, 2003,

http://space.about.com/b/a/046610.htm

  • China plans to launch more than 100 observation satellites before 2020. The Ministry of Science and Technology says a large surveillance network will be set up to monitor water reserves, forests, farmland, urban development and various events. Beijing (XNA) Nov 17, 2004

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-04zzzf.html

  • Lunar probe missions continue to be planned, with a lunar satellite launch in 2006, a lunar probe landing by 2010, and a lunar mission to collect moon dust by 2020. ["China to launch permanently manned space station within 15 years," Space Daily, 18 May 2004,

http://www.spacedaily.com
http://www.nti.org/db/china/spacechr.htm

  • Beijing’s corridor is on track for completion later this year, and the city announced plans for over 300 kilometers of additional BRT lines by 2020.

http://www.efchina.org/documents/CSEP_Update_Oct_04.pdf

  • A nationwide electricity network is expected to take shape in China by 2020, an expert said Thursday at the just-concluded Western Forum. Friday, September 07, 2001, updated at 08:55(GMT+8),

http://english.people.com.cn/english/200109/07/eng20010907_79559.html

  • It proposed that by the year 2020, investment for railway construction will amount to 357 billion yuan (43 billion US dollars) and a big chunk of communications expenditure will be appropriated to improve and upgrade airport facilities in the country's central and western region. Wednesday, December 22, 1999, updated at 09:21(GMT+8)

http://english.people.com.cn/english/199912/22/eng19991222X105.html

  • Beijing is considering building two new airports to cope with growing passenger demand. Its recently expanded Capital International Airport can handle 60 million passengers annually, but passenger flow to the capital is expected to reach 120-150 million by 2020. Express China News, October 2004

http://www.deloitte.com/dtt/newsletter/0,1012,sid%253D3636%2526cid%253D63272,00.html

  • The vast region's water supply, sewer pipe, road system, monorail system, bridges, and other infrastructure will be constructed in 5-year phases until the year 2020.

http://www.kisho.co.jp/WorksAndProjects/Works/guangzhou/

  • Wang Guangtao, Minister of Construction, indicated at the 1st International Conference on Technologies of Intelligent and Green Buildings that China's current total construction area was over 40 billion square meters. It is expected that China's newly-added construction area would reach 30 billion square meters by 2020. www.chinanews.cn 2005-03-30 13:46:50,

http://www.chinanews.cn/news/2004/2005-03-30/2928.shtml


7. Economy

  • Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Shenzhen Special Economic Zone is expected to reach more than US$20,000 in 2020, competing with Hong Kong, Singapore and other major metropolises in Asia. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Tuesday, September 23, 2003,

http://english.people.com.cn/200309/23/eng20030923_124761.shtml

  • Possible additional 22,500 jobs (‘direct’) and Value Added of $11.14billion by 2020,Hongkong, 22 November 2004,

http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr04-05/chinese/panels/es/papers/es1122cb1-230-5ce.pdf

  • China will sustain an annual economic growth rate of above 7 per cent by 2020. By Fu Jing (China Daily)

Updated: 2004-09-13 07:36

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-09/13/content_373883.htm

  • By 2020, China's per capita income could well equal that of Portugal's today, or of Argentina's or South Korea's. Provided development is widespread, poverty could be eliminated well before 2020, and with appropriate policies, China can look forward not just to a more prosperous future but to a cleaner one. By 2020, China could become the world's second largest exporter after the United States. This may seem unprecedented, but it is not. Hong Kong SAR, China, September 18, 1997,

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:20025756~menuPK:34478~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html

  • Jonathan S. Landay Knight Ridder Newspapers Posted on Thu, Jan. 13, 2005, The world of 2020 is likely to be one in which Asia is the main engine of the global economy, India and China are major powers and al-Qaida-inspired Islamist movements have spread to Muslim communities outside the Middle East, a new U.S. intelligence report said Thursday. By 2020, China's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services, will be greater than that of any Western country except the United States, and India's GDP will have overtaken or will be about to overtake European economies.
  • By John Diamond, USA TODAY ,WASHINGTON — By the year 2020, China and India will be vying with the United States for global economic supremacy, the nation's top intelligence analysts predict, and al-Qaeda will have withered away — only to be replaced by smaller, more splintered but equally deadly groups of terrorists, Posted 1/13/2005 11:39 PM,

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-01-13-long-view-usat_x.htm

  • By 2020, China will have overtaken Japan as the world's second biggest economy. It may even have started to rival the US in terms of the hard power of its military.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,15047,1299094,00.html

  • By 2020 China will be on the verge of superseding the US as the world's leading economic power. Time for the US to wake up and smell the soy sauce, reckons Mark Leonard
  • Li Shantong, Director of the Development Strategy and Regional Economy Research Department under the State Council Development Research Center,
    1. Per-capita GDP
      • China has put forward that by 2020 its GDP, calculated at the current exchange rate, will quadruple that of 2000.
    2. Engel coefficient
      • By 2020, the Engel coefficient is expected to drop from 39.4 percent in 2000 to below 30 percent in the city, from 49.1 percent to below 40 percent in the countryside, and to at least 50 percent for one fifth of the population with a minimum income.
    3. Proportion of non-agricultural employment
      • Between 1980-2000, Chinese laborers moved to non-agricultural sectors at the rate of 0.94-percentage point annually. If the figure continues in the future 20 years, laborers in non-agricultural sectors in 2020 should reach 70 percent. According to international practice, the proportion of employment in non-agricultural sectors could be around 60 percent when per-capita GDP stands at about $3,000.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • by Chi Hung KWAN, Since the initial stage of xiaokang has basically been achieved, Jiang Zemin put forth the target of quadrupling GDP from 2000 levels by 2020 so as to achieve a xiaokang society in an all-round way. China's per capita GDP in 2020 would just reach $3,000 based on 2000 prices and foreign exchange rates, a far cry from the roughly $30,000 level of industrial countries today.

http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/china/03042401.html

  • On current trends, China would become an upper middle- income country by the year 2020, and the third largest economy in the world. By 2020, China will face the challenges of a high income country, but at a time when it will have the resources of only a middle income country. November 15-16, 1996

http://www.ciaonet.org/conf/cfr01/cfr01ai.html

  • Ya-Hwei Yang ,To become an economic powerhouse, China resumed membership in the International Monetary Foundation in April 1980, the World Bank in May of the same year and later became a member of the Bank of International Settlement. It then joined the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001. Yi (2000) and other scholars expect that by 2020 China may achieve full integration with the international trade and financial system.

http://www.tsc.nccu.edu.tw/2004conference/%B7%A8%B6%AE%B4f.pdf

  • By 2020 China will be bigger than Japan and during the 2040s larger than America, and thus the world’s biggest economy. TUESDAY, JUNE 01, 2004,

HTTP://WWW.ECONOMICSUK.COM/BLOG/000131.HTML

  • Jiahua Pan,The current size of the Chinese population is 1.3 billion and it is projected to reach 1.45 to 1.85 billion in 2020. Energy demand is projected to reach 3.1 billion TCE in 2020, at a very moderate growth rate of 3.79 percent during the period between 2000 and 2020 , as compared to 7.2 percent for growth of the economy as planned.

http://www.iwep.org.cn/wec/2004_5-6/china's%20industrialization.pdf

  • SIA launches Nanoelectronics Research Initiative (NRI) to accelerate and augment research for the successor to the current mainstream semiconductor technology, CMOS, which is expected to hit physical, technological and economic limits by 2020.

http://www.sia-online.org/abt_history.cfm

  • Tokyo 13-14 January 2005, In recent years, China has emerged as the foremost proponent of creating the so-called East Asian Economic Community by 2020. the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts that China’s gross domestic product may account for one fifth of the world’s total in 2020, surpassing the US (11%) and Japan (5%).

http://www.nira.go.jp/newse/paper/japan-eu/pdf/berkofsky.pdf

  • by 2020, China will account for 10% of the world’s total trade.

http://www.smu.edu/asianstudies/symposium/papers/hsiung.html

  • Chinese Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Shi Guangsheng on Wednesday set a target for the country's foreign trade volume at 2,000 billion US dollars by the year 2020, quadruple of current foreign trade figures. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Wednesday, November 13, 2002,

http://english.people.com.cn/200211/13/eng20021113_106767.shtml

  • As for the seminal question of whether China's economy can continue to steam ahead without the transparency and accountability that come with democracy and the rule of law, Huang was almost entirely silent, save to say that by 2020, China would have "an improved democracy system" and that its people would enjoy "a better life in a more harmonious society." From the Feb. 07, 2005 issue of TIME Asia Magazine,

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/article/0,13673,501050207-1022649,00.html

  • In the next 20 years, China could surpass Japan as the second largest trading nation, and between 2020 and 2030 the People’s Republic could emerge as the world’s biggest economy.

http://www.cato.org/pubs/handbook/hb106/hb106-59.pdf

  • Barring catastrophic war or a worldwide depression, the world economy is expected to be about 80 percent larger in 2020 than it was in 2000, with average per-capita income roughly 50 percent higher. By 2020, China's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services, will be greater than that of any Western country except the United States, and India's GDP will have overtaken or will be about to overtake European economies. By Jonathan S. Landay Knight Ridder Newspapers,

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/news/special_packages/iraq/intelligence/10639015.htm?template=contentModules/printstory.jsp

  • At present, urban minimum relief line is 6.3 yuan ($0.76) each day per person, and the figure stands at 1.7 yuan ($0.21) in the countryside. By 2020, average daily expense of both urban and rural poor people should not be lower than $0.60, and therefore such population proportion should be reduced to zero by 2020. Li Shantong

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • If China maintained this year’s 8% growth for the next 20 years, it would reach the Party Congress’ new goal of quadrupling national income by 2020.
    1. By 2010, China would have over 500M middle class consumers - & become world’s largest consumer market.
    2. By 2020, Chinese incomes would be $10,000 per capita. Thus, China would achieve Deng's target of matching South Korean income levels 30 years ahead of schedule.
    3. By 2020, China would have 1.5 B people earning substantial disposable incomes. (with 20% of them owning a private car!) This would make China world’s second largest exporter and importer after USA, with purchasing power larger than all Europe.

http://www.cic.sfu.ca/forum/EarlDrakeJan232003.html

8. Health

  • China will have the world's worst Aids epidemic by 2020. But the spread of the disease could also hasten political reform. Jonathan Watts reports Saturday September 11, 2004 The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,15047,1299094,00.html

  • "By 2020, Aids will have transformed society," says Wan Yanhai, an Aids activist

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,15047,1299094,00.html

  • Ren Guoliang, a 23-year-old Aids activist, “In 2020, I believe China will have more democracy, that there will be better policies for care and treatment of Aids. Civil society will have matured and we'll be more open about the disease, which will help to control its spread."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,15047,1299094,00.html

  • According to estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study, cardiovascular diseases are responsible for about 2.6 million deaths annually in China. By 2020, this figure is projected to increase to 13 million deaths every year. The World Health Organization has predicted that depression will be the second biggest health burden worldwide by 2020. Effective and sustainable health care for the prevention and treatment of mental health disorders is one of the challenges China is working towards

http://www.thegeorgeinstitute.org/library/b30064_3.pdf

  • On June 6, the Beijing Municipal Health Bureau recognized that the current configuration of services results in inadequacy and wastefulness. There aren't enough general medical facilities for everyone in the capital, but there is a surplus of specialist centers. They aim for there to be one general hospital for every 400,000-500,000 people by 2020. China.org.cn by Zhang Tingting, June 12, 2005

http://www.china.org.cn/english/2005/Jun/131718.htm

  • BMJ 1997;315:440-441 (23 August),In developing regions over half the men are current smokers and cigarette consumption is rising. Already tobacco prematurely kills an estimated three million people worldwide each year and this will rise to 8.4 million deaths annually by 2020.

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/315/7106/440

  • A WHO report indicated that diabetes cases in China might double by the year 2020 from the present 30 million patients. China Daily June 2, 2004,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/Life/97103.htm

  • Projecting these estimates to the future, the GBD study estimates that there will be 534,000 suicide deaths in China in 2020

http://scholar.google.com/url?sa=U&q=http://www.kluweronline.com/article.asp%3FPIPS%3D204513%26PDF%3D1

  • Ren Zhenghong,By 2020, it is projected that three quarters of all death in developing countries could be ageing-related. The largest share of these deaths will be caused by noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as diseases of the circulatory system (CSDs), cancers and diabetes. Lynn Smaha, MD, PhD The World Health Organization estimates that cardiovascular disease and stroke will be the leading cause of death and disability worldwide by 2020. With China making "progress" toward the same eventuality, it is easy to see how this prediction can come true.

http://www.med.uio.no/iasam/inthel/pdfs/pdf_assignment/zhenghong.pdf http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/circulationaha;102/10/e67

  • WANA experiencing a decline to 1 million malnourished children and China reducing the number of malnourished children to 3 million in 2020.

http://scholar.google.com/url?sa=U&q=http://www.nutrition.org/cgi/content/full/132/11/3437S

9. Environment

  • By 2020, Guangzhou as a whole will become an international ecological city with a territorially "South Ridges" flavor which combines the splendent art of the eastern and western architecture and the poetry connotation

http://www.investguangzhou.gov.cn/upload/resource/engCategory/category1.jsp?currentEncode=01020304

  • Qu Geping, the first head of China's National Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA's forerunner) in 1985, believes that while the official goal of quadrupling 2002 GDP by 2020 can be “healthily achieved”, if nothing is done about the environment, economic growth could grind to a halt. Aug 19th 2004 | BEIJING, GUANGZHOU, HONG KONG, SHANGBA, SHANGHAI AND TAIHE,
  • The research shows that the traditional developing model will threaten the sustainability of eco-environment and economic development, to this challenge, the intensive urbanization policy should be conformed to, so by the end of year 2020, As Chinese government has brought forward two important development goals (one is that the Chinese people on the whole will have enjoyed a well-off standard of living in 2020, and the other is China will realize their aim of modernization in 2050), so Western China should protect eco-environment as well as keep on developing economy.

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/bridging/papers/dong.suocheng.pdf

  • According to the project, a major afforestation drive kicked off in 1999, with the aim of increasing the forest coverage rate in the area from 38 at present to 50 percent in 20 years. "The afforestation project will cost a total of 200 million yuan (about 24.1 million U.S.dollars) and the tree-planting will cover 9.5 million mu (about 630,000 hectares) by the year 2020", said a local forestry official. So far, about 33,333 hectares of trees have

been planted in the area, the official said.

http://www.undp.org.vn/mlist/envirovlc/042001/post106.htm

  • Professor Lei Hengshun of the Yangtze Technology and Economy Centre has warned that large stretches of the river could be dry by the year 2020.

http://forests.org/archive/asia/disbornp.htm

  • the year 2020, Chinese attempts to limit emissions in line with available production technology would result in GDP levels 27 percent lower than if emissions are not constrained. The cumulative loss of GDP for the period 1999 to 2020 by evaluating carbon dioxide emission would be about 24 trillion. This is more than twice China’s expected GDP level in 2020. The gap between demand and indigenous supply is projected to grow from 21-24 bcm in the year 2000 to 46-73 bcm in 2010 and to 60-111 bcm by 2020. James A. Baker October 30, 2003

http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2003hearings/written_testimonies/031030bios/amyjaffestatement.htm

  • China as a whole, the large-plant share increases from 30% to 58% during the period 1988-2020, Susmita Dasgupta, Hua Wang, David Wheeler, The World Bank, March, 1997,

http://www.worldbank.org/nipr/work_paper/survive/china-htmp5.htm

  • By Liang Chao (China Daily) Updated: 2005-08-01 05:28,Nearly a quarter of China will be forested by 2020, according to the State Forestry Administration (SFA),

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-08/01/content_465040.htm

  • China's forestry authority plans to protect more than 70 percent of the country's wetlands by 2020 as part of a national ecosystem rehabilitation effort and to sustain the economy. China Daily June 29, 2004

http://www.china.org.cn/english/environment/99684.htm

  • The Winds of China Could Solve Climate Dilemma, BEIJING, China, September 17, 2004 (ENS )
    1. China also is important to any effort to curb global emissions of greenhouse gases, as it is projected to experience the largest absolute growth in carbon dioxide emissions between now and the year 2020.
    2. Chinese government has set a target to meet 12 percent of its power generation capacity from renewables by 2020. A portion of this new capacity will come from wind.
    3. In May, the three groups launched the report "Wind Force 12 - China," an industry scenario which showed that by 2020 China is capable of installing 170 gigawatts of wind power, delivering annual savings of 325 million metric tons of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2004/2004-09-17-02.asp,

  • Li Shantong, Director of the Development Strategy and Regional Economy Research Department under the State Council Development Research Center,
    1. Proportion of population using safe water
      • The coverage rate of safe and clean water in China was 75 percent in 2000, while the world’s average level was 81 percent. To meet the requirement to build a moderately prosperous society, the rate must reach 100 percent by 2020.
    2. Energy utility rate
      • In 1998, the output of kg-coal equivalent was $0.65, compared with the world’s average of $2.32. Though the figure rose to $0.82 in 2000, it still lagged behind the average world level. But China’s technical innovation will hopefully drive the figure to $2.4 by 2020.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • By 2020, about 550,000 Chinese will be dying prematurely of chronic bronchitis from airborne pollution, and tens of millions will be affected by respiratory distress, Economy writes. China's Academy for Environmental Planning estimates that by 2020, health costs associated with pollution will slash more than 10 percent off China's gross domestic product.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31072-2004Sep18.html

  • By 2020 China will be the largest greenhouse gas emitter, by Susmita Dasgupta* Hua Wang David Wheeler

As we will show, the best available evidence suggests that approximately 4,000 people suffer premature death from pollution-related respiratory illness each year in Chongqing; 4,000 in Beijing; and 1,000 in both Shanghai and Shenyang.2 If current trends persist, we project large cumulative losses in human life through 2020. Beijing could lose nearly 80,000 people, Chongqing 70,000 and other major cities could suffer losses in the tens of thousands.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Chinas-bid-to-clear-the-air/2005/02/11/1108061868768.html?oneclick=true http://www.worldbank.com/nipr/work_paper/survive/china-new.pdf

  • By 2020, 550,000 Chinese will be dying prematurely of chronic bronchitis caused by airborne pollution. China's Ministry of Science and Technology says air pollution kills 50,000 newborn babies a year. China's wastewater pollution may increase as much as 290 percent by 2020. January 25, 2005 By: Sam Chambers

http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?fmedia_id=10319&fcategory_desc=Pollution%20and%20Pollutants

  • In the first, air and water pollution levies are both increased by 5% annually. This leads to a fourfold increase in the real levy by 2020. A second scenario increases levies by 10% annually, leading to a hirteenfold increase by 2020.
  • They range from demonstrating efforts towards slowing its greenhouse gas emissions growth at some point between the first commitment period and 2020 to committing to a combination of a targeted carbon intensity level with an emissions cap on a particular sector around or beyond 2020.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=253760

  • According to The River Runs Black, an outstanding book by Elizabeth Economy, a China scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations, five of China's biggest rivers are "not suitable for human contact." China's wastewater pollution may increase as much as 290 percent by 2020.

http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?fmedia_id=10319&fcategory_desc=Pollution%20and%20Pollutants

  • World Bank, Clean Water, Blue Skies in China 2020 China’s Environment in the New Century, September 1997.

http://www.nrel.gov/international/china/pdfs/sect4to6.pdf

  • Between 2001 and 2020 almost 600,000 people in China are expected to suffer premature death every year due to urban air pollution

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0516_050516_chinaeco_2.html

  • DING YIHUI: We estimate that between 2020 to 2030, China's emission of carbon dioxide will probably increase greatly. By then it will be hard to tell who is the largest emitter, China or the United States.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3109_worldbal.html

  • By 2020, China will be burning its way through over 100m tonnes of coal each year, fuelling global warming. Last year its total coal production reached 114m tonnes, having doubled since 1981. The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future, Elizabeth Economy, Cornell University Press, 25 July 2004, By Kenny Kemp,

http://www.sundayherald.com/43523

  • Jeffrey Logan, Senior Research Scientist Over the past five years, China has announced a major shift in natural gas policy. Largely ignored in the past, the central government wants gas to account for at least 10 percent of total energy demand in 2020, mainly for environmental reasons. China’s economy is expected to continue expanding robustly through 2020, with average GDP growth of 6 to 7 percent. Under a moderately progressive scenario, China’s overall energy use is expected to increase by just over 80 percent by 2020.

http://www.pnl.gov/aisu/pubs/polldown.pdf

  • Green Car Congress found an article in China Daily reporting predictions by Chinese officials that they expect to have 140 million cars on the road by 2020, a number larger than the present American car fleet.A shift to alternative energy cars will happen later, potentially putting China behind more forward-looking markets. This is a world of fast vehicle-ownership growth now, big problems by 2020. Posted by Jamais Cascio at September 4, 2004 03:22 PM

http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/001170.html

  • An official surnamed Li of the Shenzhen Water Resources Bureau estimated that by 2020, Shenzhen would need 2.8 billion cubic meters of water, 800 million cubic meters of that still to be sourced. Shenzhen Daily, UPDATED: 11:59, November 17, 2004,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/17/eng20041117_164216.html

  • It is predicted that the annual consumption of natural gas in China will reach 160 to 210 billion cubic meters by 2020. Xinhua News Agency April 26, 2004,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/94033.htm

  • Thus, attribution of GHG abatement is inherently speculative, as it involves assumptions about the mix of household cooking fuels which will prevail in China in 2020.

http://www.ieiglobal.org/ESDVol5No1/liquidcookingfuels.pdf

  • China's forestry authority plans to protect more than 70 percent of the country's wetlands by 2020 as part of a national ecosystem rehabilitation effort and to sustain the economy. China Daily June 29, 2004

http://www.china.org.cn/english/environment/99684.htm

  • China 2020: A greener and leafier landscape,

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-08/01/content_465036.htm



10. Fishing

  • In 2020, China will produce a projected 53 million metric tons of fish for food, a 59 percent increase over 1997 production levels. This will account for 41 percent of global fish production.
  • Aquaculture production in China in 2020 is expected to be 80 percent higher than it was in 1997, increasing from 19.5 to 35.1 million metric tons. By 2020, China will account for two-thirds of global aquaculture production
  • China imported 685,000 metric tons of low-value food fish in 1997, but is projected to export 711,000 metric tons of that commodity by 2020.
  • Per capita food fish consumption in China is projected to climb from 26.5 kilograms per person per year in 1997 to 35.9 kilograms in 2020. This is roughly twice the projected average global per capita consumption of 17.1 kilograms in 2020.
  • Total consumption of all food fish in China will increase from 33.2 million metric tons in 1997 to a projected 52.5 million in 2020, a 58 percent increase.
  • By 2020, China will account for 41 percent of all fish consumed globally. (above points from this website, Assessments and Projections from Outlook for Fish to 2020: Meeting Global Demand)

http://www.ifpri.org/media/fish2020/facts/factschina.htm

  • Most growth will occur in developing countries, which will account for 79% of food fish production in 2020. China’s share of world production will continue to expand, while that of Japan, the EU, and former USSR will continue to contract. Real fish prices will rise 4 to 16% by 2020, while meat prices will fall 3%.

http://www.fishforall.org/media/release/fish2020.pdf

11. Education

  • "On current trends, by 2020, education could amount for more export earnings [to Britain] than financial services," Brown said in a statement in Beijing. AFP , BEIJING Wednesday, Feb 23, 2005,Page 12

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2005/02/23/2003224297

  • China must figure out a sustainable resource to support its rural primary education. Not only is this a crux to greatly reduce farmers' financial burden, but it will also lay a solid basis for realizing by 2020 the ambitious all-around "Xiaokang" society, literally a moderate well-off life promised by the Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Congress held early last month. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Saturday, December 21, 2002, By PD Online Staff Forest Lee

http://english.people.com.cn/200212/21/eng20021221_108837.shtml

  • By the year 2020, China will become a "well-off society" in an all-around way when the country's GDP is quadrupled from that of 2000, and its overall national strength and international competitiveness will increase markedly, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Jiang Zemin told the Party's 16th Congress in Beijing Friday. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, November 08, 2002,

http://english.people.com.cn/200211/08/eng20021108_106504.shtml

  • By 2020 China will require higher education places for 20 million prospective university students.

http://www.developments.org.uk/data/Issue22/e-for-education.htm

  • From the issue dated December 21, 2001,By 2020, China will have 20 million students enrolled in higher education. By FLORENCE OLSEN,

http://chronicle.com/free/v48/i17/17a02601.htm

  • Jianyang City,as a county-level city with a population of 140,000,should have a large-scaled and high-standard elementary education school to meet the need of our young generation's enjoying of top-grade education. Ministry of Education puts forward an aim to popularize high school education in 2020.

http://www.scfao.gov.cn/2005/e21.html

  • If the national average rate of children finishing the 9-year compulsory education has reached 91.8%, the figure is lower in some provinces with some at only 80%. China is determined to improve these figures and to universalize primary education for all boys and girls as part of its efforts to build an “all-round” Xiaokang society by the year 2020 and of its commitment to the Millennium Development Goals that China, with 188 other countries adopted in September 2000 at the United Nations. 27 January 2005 Chengdu Posted Feb 01, 2005 - 09:22 AM,

http://www.undp.org.cn/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=266

  • If graduate enrollments follow the historical average annual undergraduate enrollment growth rate of 7.6 percent, China would reach an enrollment ratio of 0.15 percent by 2000, 0.43 percent by 2010, and 0.81 percent by 2020. If, however, economic and demographic trends produce a more rapid expansion in graduate education (9.8 percent), the enrollment ratio would reach 0.19 percent by 2000, 0.64 percent in 2010, and 1.47 percent in 2020. By 2020 total enrollments would be 1,455,000, although the enrollment ratio would still be only 1.47 percent. Guo Yugui

http://www.bc.edu/bc_org/avp/soe/cihe/newsletter/News13/text8.html#top

  • Some studies show that, by 2020, China will have 20 million students enrolled in higher education. From the issue dated December 21, 2001,

http://chronicle.com/free/v48/i17/17a02601.htm

  • The university will make great efforts to fulfill the strategic goal towards 21st century, namely, the New HUST will be developed into an internationally recognized university by 2020; and by 2050, when China is realizing her great revival, it will become one of the first-class university around the world.

http://www.enonline.sh.cn/LClook.asp?id=11371

  • More recent modeling suggests that by 2020 China will be unable to supply the 20 million university places needed to meet the demands of its developing economy, and that in the long term the demand for international education in China will far exceed the capacity of the global education industry to provide enrollments. Similarly, in 2015 India will be unable to supply 9 million university places.

http://www.bc.edu/bc_org/avp/soe/cihe/newsletter/News30/text004.htm

  • On current trends, by 2020, education could amount for more export earnings (to Britain) than financial services," Brown said in a statement in Beijing. By 2020, education could contribute more than 50 billion pounds a year to the country's economy, not far short of two percent of total GDP. (Agencies)

Updated: 2005-02-22 16:55

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-02/22/content_418449.htm

  • In 2000, China’s population aged six and above received an average 7.62 years of education. As China now implements a nine-year compulsory education, the figure should rise to 10 years by 2020.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm Li Shantong

  • They combine these projections with assumptions about trends in women’s education, male-to-female life expectancy and access to clean water to project progress in reducing underweight rates of children younger than 5 years to 2020 under three scenarios: business as usual, pessimistic and optimistic

http://www.nutrition.org/cgi/content/full/132/11/3435S

12. Aviation

  • Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, January 24, 2003, China will progress from a large to a strong aviation nation by the end of 2020. China's aviation industry is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 10 percent, based on its seven percent economic increase. By the end of 2020, China's aviation turnover will reach 84 billion ton kilometers, ranking second in the world, said CAAC Director Yang Yuanyuan at a work meeting.

http://english.people.com.cn/200301/24/eng20030124_110664.shtml

  • China Expects to Become Strong Aviation Nation by 2020( 2/09/2003)

http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/44910/44910.htm

  • By 2020, China's air traffic operations will be second only to our own. I believe this is where the Chinese regional jet - an 'R-J' - will have a significant role. Remarks Prepared for Delivery Marion C. Blakey Administrator Federal Aviation Administration Beijing American chamber of Commerce: Greatness That is China Beijing, China February 27, 2004

13. Society

  • Li Shantong, Director of the Development Strategy and Regional Economy Research Department under the State Council Development Research Center,
    1. Average education span
      • In 2000, China’s population aged six and above received an average 7.62 years of education. As China now implements a nine-year compulsory education, the figure should rise to 10 years by 2020.
    2. Social insurance coverage rate
      • China has been working on a basic social security system for all citizens, including medical insurance, pensions and a system for ensuring a minimum standard of living. By 2020, the coverage rate should reach 100 percent.
    3. Newborn life expectancy
      • In 2000, China’s life expectancy was 71.4 years, compared with 59 years for low-income countries, 69 years for medium-income nations and 78 years for high-income powers. The figure in China is expected to reach 75 by 2020.
    4. Crime rate
      • In 2000, China’s criminal cases among 10,000 people stood at 29, and is expected to drop to 15 by 2020.
    5. Proportion of culture added value
      • The added value of China’s culture, education, sports and health accounted for only 3.6 percent of the GDP in 2000. Based on the momentum of fast development over the past two years, the ratio should rise to 10 percent by 2020.
    6. Proportion of population with average daily expense below 5 yuan ($0.60)
      • At present, urban minimum relief line is 6.3 yuan ($0.76) each day per person, and the figure stands at 1.7 yuan ($0.21) in the countryside. By 2020, average daily expense of both urban and rural poor people should not be lower than $0.60, and therefore such population proportion should be reduced to zero by 2020.
    7. Gini coefficient
      • When the Gini coefficient, which measures income inequality, stands at 0, it means absolute equal income; and at 1, it means absolute income inequality. At present most experts believe China’s Gini figure has topped 0.45. But as China increasingly strengthens its adjustment in income disparity, the Gini coefficient might decline to below 0.4 by 2020.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

  • Faced with a rapidly aging society beginning in the 2020s, China may be hard pressed to deal with all the issues linked to such serious demographic problems. It is unlikely to have developed by then the same coping mechanisms—such as sophisticated pension and health-care systems—characteristic of Western societies. Its working-age population will continue to increase well into the 2020s, whereas, due to the one-child policy, China’s will diminish and age quite rapidly.

http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s2.html

==14. Institution==

  • Li Shantong, Director of the Development Strategy and Regional Economy Research Department under the State Council Development Research Center,
    1. Government management
      • Death in traffic accidents, fire or natural disasters should be used to mirror the government management and capability to deal with crisis. In 2000 the number was 15 per thousand and should drop to 5 per thousand by 2020.
    2. A clean government
      • The ratio of bribe and misconduct cases to the number of employees in Party and government departments, as well as social groups, should be used as the indicator to evaluate a clean government. In 2000, there were 41 cases among 10,000 employees. This should drop to 10 by 2020.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm

15. mega-project

  • 2005-01-19, China will complete the construction of prototype fast reactor (PFR) nuclear stations by about 2020, the director with China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) announced here Sunday

http://www.edu.cn/20050119/3127125.shtm

  • Before 2020, China will complete a series of big hydropower stations along the Honghe and Lancang rivers, and at the upper reaches of the Yellow and the Yangtze, China's two largest waterways. Thursday, November 23, 2000, updated at 20:51(GMT+8) ,

http://english.people.com.cn/english/200011/23/eng20001123_55984.html

  • At Xiangjiaba, the site of the furthest downstream of the four dams, the height of the dam will be 160 metres: an even larger one upstream at Xiluodu will reach 270m. Work on Xiluodu will begin this year. Both dams are scheduled for completion before 2020. John Gittings in Xiangjiaba, Yunnan Friday May 30, 2003 ,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,966654,00.html

  • This year alone, 20 million yuan (US$2.41 million) will be spent on a programme that aims to put in place a sound and systematic mechanism for protecting traditional and folk cultures by 2020. Xin Zhigang2004-10-18 05:52

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-10/18/content_383124.htm

16. Labor

  • As for employment, China's working-age population will peak at 955 million in 2020 (732 million in 1995). The working age population will decline after 2020, to about 800 million towards the end of the century. By Michel Andrieu International Futures Programme Published: September 1999

http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/40/China,_a_demographic_time_bomb.html

  • XINHUANET 2003-03-14 15:34:52 To achieve the goal of building a prosperous society by the year 2020, China is in urgent need of millions of professional skilled workers, Wang said,

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-03/14/content_778923.htm

  • The country's urbanization rate will reach about 60 per cent by 2020, as compared with only 37.66 per cent last year. Export growth. China's foreign trade target for 2020 is set at US$2 trillion, said Shi Guangsheng, minister of foreign trade and economic co-operation, indicating an average annual growth of 7.2 per cent. Balancing both the urban and rural labour force, the national unemployment rate stands at 23.8 per cent. Besides, China's present labour force of 713 million will increase to a peak of 781 million in 10 years and then drop to 775 million by 2020. The most optimistic outlook says that every 1 per cent of GDP growth can bring about 700,000 to 1 million jobs. China will need 741 million labourers as late as 2020, indicating that the country will face immense employment pressures in the next 18 years. This does not take into consideration the disappearance of jobs resulting from technology upgrading. China Daily,

http://www.k-bar.com.tw/e_news.asp?index=EM91112601

  • Lin F, Liu J. It is anticipated that the total working age population would reach 774.23 million by the year 2000 (410.97 million males aged 16-59 years and 363.55 million females aged 16-54 years) and exceed 893 million by 2020 (483.55 million males and 409.50 million females).

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12291336&dopt=Citation

  • With an additional workforce of 47 million likely by 2020, Indian economy by then may surge ahead of China whose 'working' populace is estimated to fall by a massive 10 million workers in the next 15 years, experts at a seminar said in New DelhiApril 09, 2004 18:33 IST,

http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2004/apr/09china.htm

  • It is estimated that there will be 170 million retirees by 2020,

http.//www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/printable/china_info_print.html-18k

  • Woman outlives man. Above the 65 years of age the number of older women grow faster than older men in 2020. Population density in China by 2020 is 149 people per sq km opens the possibility to enrich natural resources and use labour force to add its value.

http://www.cia.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_05_05_papers/demographics.doc

17. Water

  • 57 million farmers bid farewell to shortage of drinking water; 300 million farmers will drink safety-guarantee water in 2020, By People's Daily Online ,UPDATED: 09:48, November 30, 2004,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/30/eng20041130_165584.html

  • Some day even the Yangtze may run dry, perhaps by 2020. The forests at its headwaters are being cut down, the river is silting up and a series of vast and expensive dams are being built across it and its tributaries. By Jasper Becker International Herald Tribune Friday, January 5, 2001,

http://www.iht.com/articles/2001/01/05/edbecker.t.php

  • Mr. Wang reported that by 2020 China is predicted to reach a water shortage level which will merit a world crisis alert. By Jenne Turner

http://www.pacificenvironment.org/articles/china_panel.htm

  • An official surnamed Li of the Shenzhen Water Resources Bureau estimated that by 2020, Shenzhen would need 2.8 billion cubic meters of water, 800 million cubic meters of that still to be sourced. Shenzhen Daily, UPDATED: 11:59, November 17, 2004,

http://english.people.com.cn/200411/17/eng20041117_164216.html

  • The vast region's water supply, sewer pipe, road system, monorail system, bridges, and other infrastructure will be constructed in 5-year phases until the year 2020.

http://www.kisho.co.jp/WorksAndProjects/Works/guangzhou/

  • China has planned to turn itself into a water-efficient society in 15 years to realize nil growth in water consumption for social and economic development by 2020. Xinhua

http://english.people.com.cn/200506/19/eng20050619_191071.html

  • Professor Lei Hengshun of the Yangtze Technology and Economy Centre has warned that large stretches of the river could be dry by the year 2020.

http://forests.org/archive/asia/disbornp.htm

  • The coverage rate of safe and clean water in China was 75 percent in 2000, while the world’s average level was 81 percent. To meet the requirement to build a moderately prosperous society, the rate must reach 100 percent by 2020.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200416/viewpoint.htm, Li Shantong

18. Agriculture

  • China's net cereal imports of 41 million tons in 2020 would represent 18 percent of the developing world's projected net cereal imports. China could become a net cereal exporter by 2020, if its government raises investment in agriculture. October 26, 1997,

http://www.ifpri.org/pressrel/102697.htm

  • Remittances and other nonfarming activities are already more important than farming to many rural families and the World Bank anticipates that farm income will account for no more than 25% of rural incomes in Hebei by 2020

http://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/honors-berkoff.pdf

  • Jackson says, and is expected to grow to $3 billion in 2000, assuming China's entry into the WTO. Jackson claims that by 2020 China could account for a quarter of all U.S. agricultural exports.

http://multinationalmonitor.org/mm2000/00may/urbina1.html

  • Scott Rozelle and Jikun Huang, Starting from a 1995 baseline of 85 kilograms, per capita wheat consumption is projected to remain constant over the first fifteen years of the twenty-five-year forecast period. Per capita wheat consumption declines to 82 kilograms in 2020 Total wheat demand continues to increase through 2020 mainly because of population growth. In fact, the most likely scenario is that China’s wheat imports will fall by 2020. China could very well become self-sufficient in wheat within 25 years.

http://www2.montana.edu/jantle/trc/pdf/conferences/confproc98/rozelle.pdf

  • According to new figures from market research and training body IGD, China will become the world’s second largest food retail market by 2020 behind the US. IGD forecasts that by 2020 the US will account for 19 per cent of the global food retail market, a decline from 22 per cent in 2003. By contrast, the proportion contributed by China will nearly double during this period, from 8 per cent to 15 per cent.

http://www.foodnavigator.com/news/news-ng.asp?id=58687-chinese-food-market

  • Poultry consumption in developing countries is projected to grow at 3.9% per annum through 2020, followed by beef at 2.9% and pork at 2.4%.

http://www.nutrition.org/cgi/content/full/133/11/3907S


  • Jikun Huang, Cunlai Chen, In order to provide a long term prospects on China’s food security under a free trade regime, we project China’s food supply, demand and trade toward 2020 under a free trade scenario without and with the progressive improvement in agricultural productivity enhancement investment

http://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/sspn/old%20site/APC/7Jikun.PDF

  • In 2003 the Chinese food market was 35 per cent of the size of the US market; by 2020 this will figure will rise to a considerable 82 per cent. IGD forecasts that by 2020 the US will account for 19 per cent of the global food retail market, a decline from 22 per cent in 2003. By contrast, the proportion contributed by China will nearly double during this period, from 8 per cent to 15 per cent. The report predicts the global food retail market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.8 per cent, to be worth $6,353 billion in 2020. The top five food retail markets in 2020 are predicted to be the US, China, Japan, India and Russia.

http://www.foodnavigator.com/news/news-ng.asp?id=58687-chinese-food-market

  • In 2020, China will account for one-third of world meat consumption while India will consume 20% of the world’s milk and milk products. Mr Delgado said an additional 60 million steers will be required by 2020 to meet the increased demand for beef in developing countries. Increased demand for mutton will require an additional 200 million sheep while 30 million more dairy cows will be needed to satisfy the extra demand for milk and milk products. Tuesday, June 28, 2005

http://archives.tcm.ie/irishexaminer/2005/06/28/story567748609.asp

  • From 2000 to 2020, China should strive to make breakthroughs in the cultivation of super breeds of rice, corn and wheat , as well as use water, fertilizer and soil resources more efficiently. By 2030, China will have to make breakthroughs in biological technology to sustain agricultural growth.

http://www.most.gov.cn/English/newletter/130a.htm

  • By 2020, China could be the biggest importer of food after Japan.

http://www.tiu.ac.jp/~bduell/ASJ/2001/Feb.19.summary.html

  • by 2020 China will grow enough wheat to meet domestic demand. Rozelle also said China's feed grain imports should rise to 240 million metric tons (mmt) by 2020 from 117 mmt in 2000, due to rising production of meat, poultry and fish. China has imported about 10 mmt of wheat in recent years - by year 2000, China should import 13 mmt of wheat, says Rozelle. However, China's wheat imports will subsequently fall to zero, by around 2020, when the country will likely grow enough wheat to meet domestic needs.

http://www.smallgrains.org/dtnfiles/022699.htm

  • The study concluded that China's imports will rise to record levels over the next decade before stabilizing by 2020. Rising meat consumption in China will drive the increase in grain demand, as China's consumers more than double their consumption of meat, poultry, and fish from 17 kilograms per capita in 1991 to 43 kilograms per capita in 2020. Meanwhile, the amount of grain consumed directly as food will decrease, with per capita consumption of rice falling by more than 10 percent from now to 2020. By the authors calculations, feedgrain for animals will account for 38 percent of China's grain demand by 2020, up from 20 percent in 1991.

http://www.ifpri.org/pressrel/021297.htm

  • Global Insight, projects that China’s retail food consumption could expand by $25 billion a year through 2020, which would make it the world’s fastest growing food market. We anticipate that by 2020, China will have 500 million households, of which 45 percent, or 220 million consumers will have incomes sufficient to by most food products exported by the United States – up from just 14 percent in 2000. Rising Powers: China, India, and Brazil – Panel Discussion 2005 United Produce Expo and Conference Chicago, Illinois April 30, 2005

http://www.fas.usda.gov/info/speeches/et043005.asp

552 562

19. Shanghai

  • This goal was tailored for Shanghai by the central government and matches the theme of this roundtable - 2020: The World's Shanghai. 2005-06-21 06:41 China Daily 06/21/2005 page2,

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-06/21/content_453123.htm

  • The average annual per capita income is $4,000, three times higher than the rest of China, and the Shanghai economy is expected to grow at more than 7 percent per year through 2020. Shanghai city planners project a quadrupling of cars and trucks in the city by 2020. Instead, these scenarios are meant to estimate likely upper and lower bounds of greenhouse gas emissions from Shanghai transport in 2020, taking as given the projected strong economic growth. If the economy grows more slowly, emissions will likely be lower than the scenarios indicate. The rapid motorization scenario is based on the projected quadrupling of cars by 2020, coupled with a substantial increase in population.

http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-in-depth/all_reports/transportation_in_china/transportation_shang686.cfm

  • By 2020, that will increase to 35% city-wide and 50% in the Central Business District.
    1. Increasing the arterial road capacity from 2.7 million vehicle km/hour to 4.1 million by
    2. 2005; that will increase to 6.5 million by 2020.
    3. Completing rail transit network of 540km of track by 2020. This includes both Urban
    4. Metro lines and Regional Express lines linking new towns to the city.
    5. By 2005, doubling the number rail system rider trips per day to 3 million, and increasing
    6. that to 12 million by 2020.
    7. Conversion of non-motor traffic lanes to bus-only lanes in selected areas.
    8. Increasing the average speed of buses in the Central Business District by 25% to
    9. 15km/hr by 2005.
    10. Increasing daily bus ridership to 9 million by 2005. By 2020, buses will serve most short
    11. and medium distance travel in the city.
    12. Replacing 8,000 buses and retrofitting existing buses for clean energy usage.
    13. Moving long-haul hubs out of Center City and connecting them with city transit system.
    14. Providing adequate Park and Ride facilities at hubs outside city for both cars and
    15. bicycles.
    16. Increasing off-street parking capacity from 8,000 spaces to 60,000 spaces by 2005, and
    17. up to 300,000 by 2020.
    18. Reducing NOx emissions from motor vehicles by 40% from 2000 levels; by 2020 Center
    19. City air quality to meet National Standard Grade B.

http://embarq.wri.org/new/documents/shanghai.whitepaper.factsheet.pdf

20. Industrial

  • The northeastern province of Liaoning has set a goal to fully revive its outdated traditional industries between 2010 and 2020. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, October 10, 2003,

http://english.people.com.cn/200310/10/eng20031010_125749.shtml

  • The Harbin-Daqing-Qiqihar Industrial Corridor will cover 800 square kilometers and will be completed by 2020. Xinhua, 21:07, March 31, 2005,

http://english.people.com.cn/200503/31/eng20050331_178971.html

  • By 2020, China’s exports are projected to constitute nearly 10% of the world’s total, ahead of Japan but still behind North America and the European Union. World Bank,China 2020: Development Challenges in the New Century (1997)

http://www.tumenprogramme.org/tumen/publications/speeches/1999-06%20Ulaanbaatar/china2020

  • The National Research Centre for Science and Technology for Development (NRCSTD) is shouldered with the task of bringing all various opinions and views into an overall strategy for China to reach its ambitious goals by 2020. The industrial output of Shenzhen will by 2020 – the local government states - increase seven-fold. The same optimism suggests that by 2020 semiconductors will become a very important part of the information technology structure in Shenzhen, and new materials and biotechnology will become leading. by Jon Sigurdson Working Paper No 194 June 2004,

http://swopec.hhs.se/eijswp/papers/eijswp0194.pdf

21. Living Standard

  • A research paper by the Ministry of Construction says the living standard of Chinese residents will meet all targets for an all-round well-off society by 2020. By 2020, the urban residents per capita living space will reach 35 square meters. People's housing will be of high standard and 99 percent of urban households in northern China and most households in the Yangtze area will get heating during the winter. Last Updated(Beijing Time):2004-11-25 10:28 Source:CRI,

http://en-1.ce.cn/Life/social/200411/25/t20041125_2388884.shtml

22. Heilongjiang

  • the Heilongjiang population will go through three stages: low growth, zero growth and negative growth before the 2050s. It is estimated that the Heilongjiang population will grow negatively, after 2020.

http://www.unescap.org/esid/psis/population/database/chinadata/heilongjiang.htm


23. Hangzhou

  • Hangzhou to Become Regional Financial Center by 2020

http://www.tefl.com.cn/zhejiang/shownews.asp?id=2308


24. others

  • Saturday September 11, 2004 The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/story/0,,1299091,00.html

  • According to CNN.com, China has plans to launch a human being to the Moon by the year 2020. In comments broadcast by state television, Luan Enjie, director of the National Aerospace Bureau, said, "By 2020, we will achieve visiting the moon." November 29, 2003,

http://space.about.com/b/a/046610.htm

  • By 2020, the Chamdo Prefecture is scheduled to have a road network totaling 11,554 km.

http://zt.tibet.cn/tibetzt/changdu/c1_2.htm

  • By 2020, average technological levels in China might be roughly comparable to those in Taiwan and South Korea today. While China's overall military technology in 2020 can be expected to be significantly inferior to that of the United States, China is likely to develop niche capabilities in certain military technologies.

http://www.rand.org/publications/RB/RB67/

  • New Shanghai port(Yangsan port): will Establish 5 quay in '05 and 4 quay in '06(expected to be the greatest all over the world if it is completed to total 52 quay in 2020)

http://www.gyfez.go.kr/english/02investment/investment01_01_01.html

  • It is predicted that the annual consumption of natural gas in China will reach 160 to 210 billion cubic meters by 2020. Xinhua News Agency April 26, 2004,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/BAT/94033.htm

  • By 2020 it is estimated that we will have a population of 240 million elderly (60+) people – a growth of 90% and the highest in the world.

http://www.orbis.org.hk/bins/content_page.asp?cid=589-594-679-840&lang=12

  • The 2005 DIAF installation Beijing Boom Towers presents a model showing 6 hectares of the capital in 2020.

http://cn.cl2000.com/subject/798/wen007.shtml

  • China sets foreign trade target at 2,000 billion US dollars by 2020XINHUANET 2002-11-13 17:36:15

HTTP://NEWS.XINHUANET.COM/ENGLISH/2002-11/13/CONTENT_628902.HTM

  • By year 2020, China’s telecom market will be 4 times bigger than US market

http://www.coe.berkeley.edu/bisv/2004/Lu.pdf

  • Long-term goal: All organizations and families can be connected to the public telecom network by 2020. APEC Telecommunications and Information Working Group 29th Meeting | 21-26 March 2004 | Hong Kong, China,

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN016390.pdf

  • By the year 2020, China plans to reach 40 telephone lines per 100 people. This translates into a massive telecommunications infrastructure build-up in the next 22 years. FOR RELEASE FRIDAY JULY 24, 1998,

http://www.lucent.com/press/0798/980724.nsa.html

  • IDG will establish a new $150 million fund in China in the first quarter of 2005. IDG plans to invest US$2.5 billion in China by 2020.

http://www.paidcontent.org/pc/arch/cat_china.shtml

  • China plans to launch more than 100 observation satellites before 2020. The Ministry of Science and Technology says a large surveillance network will be set up to monitor water reserves, forests, farmland, urban development and various events. Beijing (XNA) Nov 17, 2004

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-04zzzf.html

  • China and India are large producers, will increase steadily through 2020.

http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s3.html

  • A Chinese government expert in this industry estimated that in 2020, China’s safety and security expenditures would reach USD 30 billion. U.S Commercial Service - American Embassy, Beijing

Vol. 2 No. 173

http://www.buyusa.gov/china/en/ccb050325.html

  • By 2020, China will have a middle class of 200 million, vs. 186 million for the USA, says Ming-Jer Chen, a business strategy expert at the University of Virginia's Darden Graduate School of Business Administration. By James Cox, USA TODAY,

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/trade/2004-08-10-china-us_x.htm

  • Wang Guangtao, Minister of Construction, indicated at the 1st International Conference on Technologies of Intelligent and Green Buildings that China's current total construction area was over 40 billion square meters. It is expected that China's newly-added construction area would reach 30 billion square meters by 2020. www.chinanews.cn 2005-03-30 13:46:50,

http://www.chinanews.cn/news/2004/2005-03-30/2928.shtml

  • By 2020, I expect the bulk of the network to be converted. Updated: 2004-7-26 11:15:12,

http://english.c114.net/market_html/Voip2004726111512-1.Html

  • The highlight is a scale model bigger than a basketball court of the entire metropolis -- every skyscraper, house, lane, factory, dock, and patch of green space -- in the year 2020.

http://bulo.163.com/push/-CJrQ-ZqFpyW-0-8E.html

  • The Chinese government is seeking public input through the Internet into a long-term plan intended to reinvigorate the country's science and technology by 2020. Under the MOST plan, by 2020, China should become a leading player in science and technology, and by 2050, the country should be rated as one of the world's "science and technology powers". Fu Jing

19 June 2003 Source: SciDev.Net

http://www.scidev.net/News/index.cfm?fuseaction=readNews&itemid=870&language=1

  • Xu says, “We do not view computing grids merely as a technology for distributed scientific supercomputing, but as a way of drastically lowering information technology costs. Our long-term vision is to provide low-cost IT products and services for half of China’s population by 2020.”

http://www.theinstitute.ieee.org/portal/site/tionline/menuitem.130a3558587d56e8fb2275875bac26c8/index.jsp?&pName=institute_level1_article&TheCat=1016&article=tionline/legacy/inst2005/jul05/7w.memprofile.xml&

  • In 2020 it may seem to China that it would be worth it to have a very bloody battle in which a lot of their young men could die in some glorious cause," says Ms. Hudson, a professor of political science at Brigham Young University.

http://pekingduck.org/archives/001199.php

  • By the year 2020, China will have the largest telecommunications network the world has ever known,” said William Warwick, head of AT&T’s China operations. “If you are not in China, you will not be able to compete anywhere in the world, including the United States. There are no other places like it. ”

http://www.prwatch.org/prwv4n1.pdf

  • Lunar probe missions continue to be planned, with a lunar satellite launch in 2006, a lunar probe landing by 2010, and a lunar mission to collect moon dust by 2020. ["China to launch permanently manned space station within 15 years," Space Daily, 18 May 2004,

http://www.spacedaily.com
http://www.nti.org/db/china/spacechr.htm

  • it is estimated that before 2020, China will have the largest online population over other countries (Cullen and Choy, 1999). Based on these facts, therefore, the Chinese government attempts to protect the country’s future leaders and one of its ways is by regulating the Internet.

http://wiki.media-culture.org.au/index.php?title=Cultural_Imperialism_-_The_Internet_Gatekeepers_-_China&printable=yes

  • By 2020, China intends to upgrade its international standards involvement to an advanced level, putting China high in the ranking of international standardization contributors.

http://www.cpsc.gov/businfo/china.pdf

  • China's electronic and information industry will grow to at least eight times its present size in the period from 2000 to 2020, an official with the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) said yesterday. China Daily January 17, 2003,

http://www.china.org.cn/english/government/53790.htm

  • if current trends hold, by 2020 China is likely to emerge as a formidable multidimensional regional power as it continues to trade quantity for quality, increase defense spending, pursue innovation, and mature its industrial base.

http://www.rand.org/publications/IP/IP187/IP187.html

  • In 2020, I strongly believe that Hong Kong citizens will continue fighting for their rights, because of our recognition of living in a peaceful environment is in fact a matter of certainty in human rights. In 2020, as leaders of Hong Kong, now we should grasp this opportunity and find out our own position for the future of Hong Kong. In 2020, with the unpredictable potential in China, I believe that the co-operation between China and Hong Kong will become closer for the experience we gained in the past as an international city. Hong Kong in 2020 will probably still be the wonderful place where everyone will enjoy his/her freedom. May Hong Kong be as beautiful as it is in my mind in 2020! To achieve this, I surely have a part to play as well. Sandy Kwan Yee-mei

http://topics.developmentgateway.org/youth/rc/filedownload.do~itemId=316617

  • By 2020, China is expecting to reach the ranks of the moderately developed countries, equivalent to today's Malaysia or Thailand. February 12, 2005

http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Chinas-bid-to-clear-the-air/2005/02/11/1108061868768.html?oneclick=true

  • The one-child policy has created a shortage of female babies, and the government has admitted that by 2020 China might have as many as 40 million single men, which could pose a threat to social stability. Published in The Guardian: 11 September 2004,

http://www.cer.org.uk/articles/leonard_guardian_11sep04.html

  • By the year 2020, China will become a "well-off society" in an all-around way when the country's GDP is quadrupled from that of 2000, and its overall national strength and international competitiveness will increase markedly, General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Jiang Zemin told the Party's 16th Congress in Beijing Friday. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, November 08, 2002,

http://english.people.com.cn/200211/08/eng20021108_106504.shtml

  • Wu Xiaoping, Vice Chairman of China's insurance regulator predicted in June 2004 that China's insurance premiums would reach RMB 3 trillion (US$363 billion) by 2020.

http://www.euromoneyseminars.com/default.asp?Page=102&eventid=ELE701&eventmenu=true&eventpassed=false=ASHK

  • Industry experts estimate that by 2020 China’s safety and security market will reach USD 30 billion. From September 11, 2001 through 2004, the Chinese government has invested USD 130 million to cope with anti-terrorism security issues, many involving air travel.

http://www.buyusa.gov/china/en/firesecurity.html

  • 2020 Large-scale industrial use of hydrogen in more than 10 key cities and several major fields, commercial demonstration of novel hydrogen production and storage technology;

http://www.iphe.net/ipherestrictedarea/ 6-9-04/Country%20paper%20-%20China.doc

  • By 2020, China will need (depending on diet) between 500 and 600 million tons of grain p.a. for its projected population of 1.5 billion. Thus, on the basis of the AEZ model estimates, China will have problems in feeding its population if it relies on rain-fed cultivation alone. 12249/ ADMINISTERING WATER IN INDIA IN 2050 AD

http://www.oecd.org/document/10/0,2340,en_2649_34213_1961610_1_1_1_1,00.html

  • China's Military Equipment to Reach Advanced World Standards by 2020. Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Friday, January 10, 2003

http://english.people.com.cn/200301/10/eng20030110_109908.shtml

  • Perspectives on State Socialism in China (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1997) and, with Michel Oksenberg, China Towards 2020: Social Change and Political Uncertainties (Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield). His research interests include Sino-Soviet/Russian relations, communications, and mass media in China.

http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/cbg/asia/people.htm

  • By 2020, 100 million Chinese are expected to go globe trotting. Monday, Sep. 16, 2002

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/printout/0,13675,501020923-351286,00.html

  • By 2020, it is estimated that China may contain 30 to 40 million restless bachelors. Unfortunately, the proposed “cure” merely continues the process that helped create the crisis: namely, social engineering. September 1, 2004

Wendy McElroy

http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1363

  • Nearly a quarter of China will be forested by 2020, according to the State Forestry Administration (SFA). China Daily

http://www.chinaembassy.org.nz/eng/xw/t205860.htm

  • Beijing’s corridor is on track for completion later this year, and the city announced plans for over 300 kilometers of additional BRT lines by 2020.

http://www.efchina.org/documents/CSEP_Update_Oct_04.pdf

  • China’s expenditure on travel is currently growing by 27% per year and tourist departures are expected to grow to 100 million by 2020,Shanghai, 16 March 2005,

http://www.iru.org/Events/BusCoachForum2005/declaration.htm

  • On this basis, Schipper posited three scenarios, the most likely of which is that by 2020 China will have 180 million vehicles, exclusive of trucks. Trucks could add an additional 30 percent more vehicles for a total of 234 million vehicles. Schipper's scenario would mean that by 2020, China would have the same order of magnitude of vehicles as the United States, on a land mass of approximately the same size.

http://www.informinc.org/chinacrisis.php

  • By 2020 China and the US will be at least 70% dependent on the Middle East, with major foreign policy implications. The scientific consensus is that worldwide oil production has reached mid-point.

http://www.baaqmd.gov/brd/advisecouncil/aqp_tec_min_101204.pdf

  • Beginning in 2015, construction of a small permanent Moon base would begin. The objective would be for a self-sufficient lunar base to be in operation by 2020. This would be a bridgehead for construction of a network of solar power generating plants.

http://www.astronautix.com/craft/chirbase.htm

  • China is expected to link almost every households' telephones, including those in its vast rural areas, by 2020, the Ministry of Information Industry has said.

http://www.thatschina.net/20049-p8.htm

  • China's share of world trade will account for 10% of the world's trade by the year 2020 and that China will become the world's second largest trading nation after the United States.

http://www.ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/international/inter-10.cfm

  • According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the country will become the second largest importer worldwide in 2020.

http://www.bjreview.com.cn/200401/SpecialReport-200401(C).htm

  • By 2020, China might produce 3.65 million barrels per day but will likely require more than twice that to meet its needs.

http://www.meforum.org/article/694

  • China will have more than 23 million men unable to find wives by 2020 because so many more boys are being born than girls, according to a study.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/07/22/wchina22.xml&sSheet=/news/2005/07/22/ixworld.html

  • A nationwide electricity network is expected to take shape in China by 2020, an expert said Thursday at the just-concluded Western Forum. Friday, September 07, 2001, updated at 08:55(GMT+8),

http://english.people.com.cn/english/200109/07/eng20010907_79559.html

  • "The proportion of middle class in China will expand to 45 percent in 2020 from today's 5 percent," it quoted Cheng Xuebing, an official with the bureau, as saying.

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/29126/newsDate/20-Jan-2005/story.htm

  • China 2020: A greener and leafier landscape,

http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-08/01/content_465036.htm

  • It plans at least ten other projects abroad to meet domestic demand for aluminium, which it expects to triple by 2020. Feb 19th 2004 | BEIJING, LONDON, NEW YORK AND TOKYO From The Economist print edition

http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2446908

  • It is expected that the middle income community would amount to 40 percent of the whole society by 2020. People's Daily (2004-03-26)

http://www.chinataiwan.org/web/webportal/W5023243/A5611053.html

  • A $4 trillion economy would give China's 1.3 billion people a per capita income of $3000 by 2020, compared with about $1230 now. Wednesday, May 18, 2005 Posted: 0107 GMT (0907 HKT),

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/05/17/eyeonchina.hujintao.target/

  • A similar explosion will follow elsewhere in China. Growth in Shanghai's 60+ group will begin slowing in 2020. Monday, April 11, 2005,

http://www.chinastockblog.com/2005/04/post_1.html

  • At the same time, the "Report" boldly projects that by 2020, China's military expenses will have increased in real terms three to four times.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/jfjb090803.html


===Telecommunication:===
1. By year 2020, China’s telecom market will be 4 times bigger than US market

http://www.coe.berkeley.edu/bisv/2004/Lu.pdf

2. Long-term goal: All organizations and families can be connected to the public telecom network by 2020. APEC Telecommunications and Information Working Group 29th Meeting | 21-26 March 2004 | Hong Kong, China,

http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN016390.pdf

3. By the year 2020, China plans to reach 40 telephone lines per 100 people. This translates into a massive telecommunications infrastructure build-up in the next 22 years. FOR RELEASE FRIDAY JULY 24, 1998,

http://www.lucent.com/press/0798/980724.nsa.html

4. it is estimated that before 2020, China will have the largest online population over other countries (Cullen and Choy, 1999). Based on these facts, therefore, the Chinese government attempts to protect the country’s future leaders and one of its ways is by regulating the Internet.

http://wiki.media-culture.org.au/index.php?title=Cultural_Imperialism_-_The_Internet_Gatekeepers_-_China&printable=yes

5. By the year 2020, China will have the largest telecommunications network the world has ever known,” said William Warwick, head of AT&T’s China operations. “If you are not in China, you will not be able to compete anywhere in the world, including the United States. There are no other places like it. ”

http://www.prwatch.org/prwv4n1.pdf

6. August 16, 2004 Every Chinese family will have a telephone, fixed-line or mobile, by 2020, according to a plan recently unveiled by the Ministry of Information Industry.

http://www.w2forum.com/p/mobile_asia_statistics/20//#every_household_china_have_phone_2020_mi

7. China is expected to link almost every households' telephones, including those in its vast rural areas, by 2020, the Ministry of Information Industry has said.

http://www.thatschina.net/20049-p8.htm

8. By the year 2020, China will have the largest telecommunications network the world has ever known," said William Warwick, head of AT&T's China operations

http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/1997Q1/mfn.html

9. By the year 2020, China will have the largest telecommunications network the world has ever known," said William Warwick, head of AT&T's China operations

http://www.prwatch.org/prwissues/1997Q1/mfn.html

10. August 16, 2004 Every Chinese family will have a telephone, fixed-line or mobile, by 2020, according to a plan recently unveiled by the Ministry of Information Industry.

http://www.w2forum.com/p/mobile_asia_statistics/20//#every_household_china_have_phone_2020_mi

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